Weekly Brief

25 January, 2026

Kyreke Gilzene
January 25, 2026

Welcome to this week’s Weekly Brief. This past week, Davos debates, defence strategies, elections, ceasefires, and trade disputes exposed mounting strains on alliances and the rules-based order worldwide.

First time reading? Stay ahead of current events. Sign up here.

Feel free to send us feedback at [email protected]

WEF 2026: Transatlantic strains, Arctic security, and the future of the rules-based order

World Economic Forum 2026 in Davos (19–23 January) blended hard security with economic resilience, AI governance, energy transition, and “investing in people”. US President Donald Trump argued only Washington can guarantee Greenland’s security and development, calling for “immediate negotiations” while ruling out force, sharpening EU–US friction over sovereignty, Arctic defence, and trade leverage.

Across the programme, sessions focused on European strategic autonomy, defence spending, and alliance burden-sharing; alongside debates on supply chains, industrial policy, private credit, and emerging-market risk. Technology tracks tackled AI scaling, AGI readiness, cyber threats, and data governance, while climate and energy panels examined EV adoption, renewables, and decarbonisation finance.

In keynote addresses, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, warned of intensifying great-power politics and pressure on the rules-based system. Trump also launched a Board of Peace, with Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State, and various senior global leaders, citing Gaza as the initial focus.

Ukraine, Russia, and US signal progress after Abu Dhabi peace talks

Rare face-to-face talks involving Russian, Ukrainian, and US officials ended on a cautiously positive note in Abu Dhabi, with Volodymyr Zelensky saying discussions were “constructive” and could lead to further meetings as early as next week. Zelensky said talks covered potential US monitoring and oversight of a peace process and followed near-complete discussions on American-backed postwar security guarantees.

The talks examined a revised 20-point draft peace plan, originally negotiated between the Trump administration and Russia, with input from Ukraine, Europe, and others. Russia was represented by senior intelligence officials including Igor Kostyukov, while Kyrylo Budanov led Kyiv’s delegation. Despite progress signals, deep divisions remain over territory, security guarantees, and any NATO-linked troop presence.

UK approves China’s largest European embassy site in London

The UK government has approved plans for China to build what would be its largest embassy in Europe at Royal Mint Court, near the Tower of London, ending a three-year planning impasse. Approval was granted by Steve Reed, ahead of an expected visit to China by Keir Starmer, the first by a British leader since 2018.

Beijing bought the site in 2018, but the local council had rejected the proposal on security grounds. Critics, including Hong Kong pro-democracy activists and residents, warn of surveillance risks and protest-related disruption. Dan Jarvis said national security assessments had been completed and safeguards were in place. The decision may still face legal challenge.

Syria extends ceasefire with Kurdish-led SDF as post-war transition continues

Syria has extended a ceasefire with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as Damascus advances efforts to consolidate control in the country’s north-east during its post-war transition.

The move reflects a broader shift in US policy after a decade-long partnership with the SDF against Isis. US Special Envoy Tom Barrack said the group’s role had “largely expired”, urging Kurdish leaders to cooperate with President Ahmed al-Sharaa.

Syrian government forces have retaken former SDF-held territory, including oil-producing areas, while US-brokered talks on integrating the SDF into the state collapsed after prolonged deadlock. The renewed 15-day truce aims to sustain dialogue and avert renewed clashes, as Kurdish autonomy faces growing uncertainty.

Japan’s Takaichi dissolves parliament, calls snap election seeking stronger mandate

Sanae Takaichi dissolved parliament on 23 January 2026, triggering a snap general election on 8 February as she seeks a stronger mandate amid inflation pressures and market unease. Japan’s first female leader is relying on solid Cabinet approval ratings to offset weaker support for her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

December core inflation eased to 2.4% year-on-year, aided by power subsidies, but rice prices surged 34%, underscoring household strain. The Cabinet approved a ¥122.3tn FY2026 budget, though critics warn dissolution could delay passage. A proposed two-year food sales-tax cut has unsettled bond markets, with public debt set to exceed 230% of GDP. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates while monitoring volatility.

Portugal heads for rare presidential runoff after fragmented first round

Portugal is heading for a rare presidential runoff after a fragmented first round highlighted shifting voter dynamics. With all votes counted, António José Seguro led with 31.1%, followed by André Ventura on 23.5%. The pair will contest a 8 February runoff, only the second since Portugal’s return to democracy in 1974.

Although largely ceremonial, the presidency carries key constitutional powers. João Cotrim de Figueiredo placed third with around 16%, while Luís Montenegro said his party would back neither candidate. Analysts, including the Economist Intelligence Unit, expect Ventura to struggle to broaden his appeal.

Washington sets out “peace through strength” in 2026 defence strategy

The United States has released its 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS), setting out a renewed focus on homeland defence, great-power deterrence, and allied burden-sharing amid rising multi-theatre risk. Published by the Department of War, the strategy reflects the second-term security priorities of President Donald J. Trump and is framed around “peace through strength.”

The document warns of a deteriorating global environment and the risk of simultaneous major wars. It identifies China as the primary long-term challenge, with Russia, Iran, and North Korea described as persistent regional threats. Key priorities include missile defence under the Golden Dome for America, Indo-Pacific deterrence, higher allied defence spending, and revitalising the defence industrial base. The strategy is overseen by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.

Colombia halts power exports to Ecuador as trade dispute escalates

Colombia has suspended electricity exports to Ecuador and imposed a 30% tariff on 20 Ecuadorian products, escalating a trade and security dispute between the neighbours.

The move follows Daniel Noboa’s decision to apply a 30% “security charge” on Colombian imports from 1 February, citing a trade deficit and limited cooperation on drug trafficking. Colombia’s Energy Ministry said power exports were halted due to climate-related supply risks, not retaliation.

Gustavo Petro rejected accusations of inaction, saying authorities seized 200 tonnes of cocaine along the shared border. Ecuador has signalled possible reciprocal steps, while Bogotá described its tariff as “proportional, transitory and revisable”, and said dialogue remains open.

To Lam secures new term in Vietnam; Beijing escalates military investigations

Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party has reappointed To Lam for a further five-year term after a unanimous vote at its five-yearly congress, consolidating his authority within the one-party system. He pledged faster economic growth, governance reform, and performance-based leadership. The party adopted a target of at least 10% annual GDP growth and appointed a new 19-member Politburo, elevating figures including Tran Thanh Man and Le Minh Hung.

Separately, China confirmed investigations into senior People’s Liberation Army figures Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, deepening Xi Jinping’s military anti-corruption drive and raising concerns over short-term command stability.

Canada deepens strategic partnership with Qatar; Jordan–Qatar accords advance

Mark Carney has secured a new strategic partnership with Qatar during talks in Doha with Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, aimed at expanding trade, investment, and security cooperation amid global economic realignment.

The agreement includes plans to conclude a Canada–Qatar Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (FIPA) by summer 2026, establish a Joint Economic and Technical Commission, and deepen cooperation in AI, quantum computing, clean energy, defence, and advanced manufacturing. Qatar committed to strategic investment in major Canadian nation-building projects.

Separately, Jordan and Qatar signed multiple accords following talks between Ayman Safadi and Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, covering economic cooperation, regional diplomacy, Gaza governance, and Syria’s post-war reconstruction.

Greece–Israel deepen defence cooperation as Aegean tensions persist

Greece is expanding defence cooperation with Israel, focusing on anti-drone systems and cybersecurity, following talks in Athens between Nikos Dendias and Israel Katz.

Dendias said both sides will exchange expertise to counter drone swarms, including unmanned aerial and subsea vehicles, while enhancing cyber resilience. Cooperation builds on existing ties, including joint military exercises and a Greek-based air training centre.

The talks coincide with heightened regional tensions as Greece advances major defence procurement and explores a multi-layer air and missile defence system. Separately, Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis reiterated plans to extend Greece’s territorial waters, despite long-standing objections from Türkiye, underscoring persistent disputes in the strategically sensitive Aegean.