Weekly Brief

Welcome to the tut0ugh Weekly Brief. This past week, diplomacy, trade agreements, security pacts, elections, and ceasefires underscored growing global uncertainties and shifting power dynamics.

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UK–China relations reset with trade deals; UK–Japan deepen security and critical minerals ties

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer completed a four-day visit to China, the first by a British PM in eight years, signalling a reset in relations with President Xi Jinping. Starmer sought a “sophisticated relationship” balancing economic engagement and security ties with the United States.

The visit secured £2.2bn in export deals, £2.3bn in market access wins, and hundreds of millions in investment. China agreed to cut tariffs on UK whisky from 10% to 5% and grant 30-day visa-free travel for UK nationals. AstraZeneca pledged $15bn investment in R&D and manufacturing. 

Chinese companies, including POP MART and Chery Commercial Vehicles, committed to UK hubs, creating hundreds of skilled jobs. Initiatives span life sciences, energy storage, sport, and logistics, demonstrating the commercial benefits of pragmatic UK–China engagement.

Following Beijing, the UK and Japan agreed to accelerate cooperation on cybersecurity and critical minerals, establishing a new UK–Japan cyber strategic partnership, securing supply chains, and strengthening multilateral trade coordination under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

EU and India strike landmark trade deal; EU–Vietnam ties upgraded

India and the European Union have finalised a landmark trade agreement set to eliminate up to €4bn in tariffs on EU exports and potentially double shipments to India. The deal was concluded during talks between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President António Costa, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The pact removes or cuts tariffs on 96.6% of EU exports, including cars, machinery, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, while excluding sensitive agricultural sectors. EU car tariffs will fall from 110% to as low as 10%, capped annually, and €500m has been pledged for Indian industrial decarbonisation. The agreement awaits ratification.

Separately, Vietnam and the EU upgraded relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Vietnamese President Luong Cuong called the move a “historical milestone” during talks with António Costa, signalling closer political and strategic cooperation amid global trade disruption.

Iran signals diplomacy under pressure; US approves major Middle East arms sales

Iran has reiterated openness to diplomacy with the United States, while warning talks cannot proceed under military pressure. Speaking in Türkiye, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran was ready for “fair and equitable” negotiations but would respond forcefully to any attack, stressing that Iran’s missile and defence capabilities are non-negotiable. He cautioned that direct US intervention could trigger wider escalation.

US President Donald Trump said Iran “wants to make a deal” as Washington increases its naval presence in the Gulf, warning time is “running out” on nuclear talks without setting a deadline.

Separately, the Trump administration approved $6.67bn in arms sales to Israel and a $9bn weapons package for Saudi Arabia, including Apache helicopters and Patriot missiles, following congressional notification. The US State Department said the sales support regional security amid rising tensions.

UN warns of imminent financial collapse amid funding shortfalls

The United Nations is facing an “imminent financial collapse” that could disrupt operations by mid-2026, according to UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

In a letter to all 193 member states, Guterres warned that unpaid assessed contributions are undermining programme delivery and threatening financial stability. Only 77% of 2025 contributions have been paid, creating a record shortfall. UN financial rules have also forced refunds of unspent funds, including $227 million returned in early 2026 despite not being collected.

The United States, the UN’s largest contributor, withheld regular and peacekeeping payments and withdrew from several agencies under President Donald Trump. Aid reductions by the UK and Germany have added pressure. Guterres urged states to pay in full and on time or overhaul UN financial rules.

Spain moves to regularise 500,000 undocumented migrants

Spain’s government has approved a decree to regularise around 500,000 undocumented migrants, diverging from stricter migration policies elsewhere in Europe. Migration Minister Elma Saiz said beneficiaries would be allowed to work “in any sector, in any part of the country”, framing the move as a human-rights-based migration model supporting integration and economic growth.

The measure applies to people resident in Spain for at least five months, who applied for international protection before 31 December 2025, hold a clean criminal record, and includes dependent children already in Spain. Applications will be accepted between April and June 2026.

The decree bypasses parliament, where Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s coalition lacks a majority. Opposition leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo, of the Popular Party, criticised the plan, while the government argues migration is vital to address labour shortages and demographic ageing.

Syria agrees ceasefire and integration deal with Kurdish-led SDF

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire with Damascus and a phased integration of their military and administrative structures into the Syrian state, Syrian officials confirmed on 30 January 2026.

The deal follows renewed clashes in which government forces reclaimed most territory held by the SDF in northeastern Syria for over a decade. Under the agreement, SDF units will withdraw from front lines as Interior Ministry forces enter Hassakeh and Qamishli. Three SDF brigades will be reorganised into a new formation, with another embedded within a government unit in Aleppo province. Kurdish-led institutions will be absorbed into state bodies, while civil and educational rights and the return of displaced residents are guaranteed.

Fighting resumed in January after talks over a March 2025 integration framework stalled. The United States encouraged a settlement but did not intervene militarily.

Burkina Faso dissolves political parties; votes to join Vienna Convention amid nuclear ambitions 

Burkina Faso’s military-led authorities have issued a decree dissolving all political parties, further tightening restrictions imposed since successive coups as the country battles insurgent groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIL. 

The decision, approved by the Council of Ministers, transfers party assets to the state. Interior Minister Emile Zerbo said the move was intended to “rebuild the state”, with officials citing excessive party proliferation and weakened national cohesion.

Separately, Burkina Faso has formally acceded to the Vienna Convention on Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage (VCLND), advancing plans for a civilian nuclear energy programme in cooperation with Russia. The move, unanimously approved by the Transitional Legislative Assembly, aligns national law with international nuclear liability standards as cooperation with Rosatom deepens.

Myanmar military-backed USDP claims election landslide

Myanmar’s military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) has claimed a decisive victory in the country’s three-phase general election, according to state media, following a tightly controlled process held amid ongoing civil conflict.

Preliminary results show the USDP winning 232 of 263 seats in the Pyithu Hluttaw (lower house) and 109 of 157 seats declared so far in the Amyotha Hluttaw (upper house). The legislature is expected to convene in March 2026 to elect a president, with a new government due to take office in April, junta spokesperson Zaw Min Tun said. Voter turnout averaged around 55%, with polling cancelled in conflict-affected areas.

The election, held more than four years after the 2021 coup that ousted Aung San Suu Kyi, has been rejected by ASEAN, Western governments and rights groups. Junta leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing maintains the vote was free and fair.

Court rules Dutch government discriminated against Bonaire islanders on climate adaptation 

A Dutch court has ruled that the Netherlands unlawfully discriminated against residents of Bonaire, a Caribbean special municipality, by failing to adequately support climate change adaptation and to meet its fair share of emissions reductions.

The Hague District Court found breaches of Articles 8 and 14 of the European Convention on Human Rights, citing unequal treatment compared with residents in the European Netherlands. The case was brought by Bonaire residents and Greenpeace Nederland, with the court admitting Greenpeace’s claim as an organisation.

The ruling orders a concrete Bonaire climate adaptation plan, a transparent national carbon budget aligned with 1.5°C within six months, and legally binding interim emissions targets. Climate Policy Minister Sophie Hermans said the government would review the decision, which can be appealed.

Türkiye targets $5bn Nigeria trade deal; US expands Manda Bay base in Kenya

Türkiye President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Ankara is targeting a $5 billion trade volume with Nigeria, up from about $2 billion, following talks with Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu during a state visit on 27 January 2026.

At a joint briefing, President Erdoğan confirmed plans for a Joint Economy and Trade Committee to expand Turkish investment. Türkiye exports aircraft, machinery, iron and steel, and chemicals, while Nigeria supplies crude oil and agricultural goods. Cooperation on energy, defence, education, security, and counter-terrorism was also discussed. Nine bilateral agreements were signed.

Separately, the United States began a $70 million expansion of the Manda Bay military base in Kenya, led by US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau and AFRICOM Commander General Dagvin Anderson, strengthening counter-terrorism operations in the Horn of Africa.

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