Weekly Brief

March 30, 2025

Welcome to the tut0ugh Weekly Brief. This past week, a 7.7-magnitude earthquake devastates Myanmar, Trump plans steep tariffs on Venezuela oil buyers, and South Sudan edges closer to civil war. Plus, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a Black Sea ceasefire, Canada and Australia announced snap elections, and Belarus’ Lukashenko was sworn in for a seventh term.

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7.7-magnitude earthquake devastates Myanmar, death toll surges

A 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar near Mandalay on Friday (Mar. 28), sending shock waves across Southeast Asia. The quake, one of the strongest in the region’s history, killed at least 1,644 people, injured over 3,400, and left 139 missing. Myanmar’s military-led government warned the death toll could rise as rescue efforts continue.

The earthquake’s impact was felt across Southeast Asia, causing damage in Thailand and beyond. However, military censorship in Myanmar has limited information flow. The country, already gripped by civil war, faces severe challenges with nearly 20 million people lacking proper food and shelter, further complicating relief efforts. The U.S. Geological Service's predictive modelling estimated Myanmar's death toll could exceed 10,000 and losses could exceed the country's annual economic output.

Trump imposes 25% tariffs on Venezuela oil buyers and auto imports

US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from any country purchasing Venezuelan oil, a move that could disrupt crude markets and sharply raise levies on goods from China and India. Additionally, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported cars and parts, effective April 2, with parts taxes starting in May.

Canadian PM Mark Carney condemned the auto tariffs as a “direct attack,” warning of a broad trade renegotiation. Italian FM Antonio Tajani said the move would raise US auto prices due to reliance on European parts. Meanwhile, China’s Xi Jinping urged global CEOs to protect supply chains, as Beijing braces for more US tariffs.

South Sudan risks return to civil war amid rising tension

South Sudan is on the brink of renewed civil war, the UN warned, following the government’s latest crackdown on opposition leader Riek Machar. Authorities placed Machar under house arrest, accusing him of plotting to destabilise the country. Security forces raided his home, removed his guards, and arrested several of his party members.

The move follows clashes in the north between government troops and the White Army militia, allegedly aligned with Machar. The 2018 peace deal, which ended a five-year civil war, is under strain due to repeated election delays—now pushed to 2026. Opposition groups demand Machar’s release and urge dialogue to prevent further violence.

Russia and Ukraine agree to Black Sea ceasefire

Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea in separate deals with the US, following peace talks in Saudi Arabia. The agreement aims to reopen trade routes and prevent attacks on energy infrastructure. However, Russia insists the ceasefire will only take effect if sanctions on its food and fertilizer trade are lifted, including reconnecting its banks to the SWIFT system. It was unclear from the White House's statement when the agreement is meant to come into force.

Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron proposed sending “reassurance forces” from several European countries to Ukraine if a peace deal is reached. The forces would deter future Russian aggression but not serve as peacekeepers.

US Signal leak scandal; Trump’s Greenland ambitions intensify amid new coalition

US officials face backlash over an intelligence breach after journalist Jeffrey Goldberg was mistakenly added to a Signal group chat discussing planned strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Shortly after, the US bombed multiple sites on March 15. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz took responsibility, while President Trump downplayed the risks. Lawmakers are calling for an investigation.

Meanwhile, Trump reaffirmed plans to annex Greenland, citing security concerns. During a visit to the US’ Pituffik Space Base, VP JD Vance criticised Denmark’s defence of Greenland and urged the island to seek independence. Hours before Vance’s visit Greenland’s Democrats and three other parties formed a coalition government to present a united front against Trump’s push.

Canada to hold snap election on April 28

Canada’s new Prime Minister Mark Carney has called a snap election for April 28, dissolving Parliament less than two weeks after succeeding Justin Trudeau. The vote, originally due by October 20, comes as Carney’s Liberal Party gains momentum following Trudeau’s January resignation.

Once trailing the opposition Conservatives by double digits, the Liberals are now in a tight race, boosted by public backlash against repeated threats from Donald Trump. The election will be fought against the backdrop of soaring housing costs and an affordability crisis, issues that have plagued the Liberals throughout their nearly decade-long rule.

Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra survives no-confidence vote

Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra survived a no-confidence vote on Wednesday (Mar. 26), defeating the opposition’s challenge by 319 votes to 162, with seven abstentions. Critics accused the 38-year-old of being a puppet of her father, ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, and slammed her inexperience and handling of the economy.

Thaksin, a divisive figure, returned from 15 years of self-exile in 2023, serving only a few months of an eight-year corruption sentence before receiving a royal pardon. Paetongtarn became PM last year, leading a coalition headed by the Pheu Thai Party, founded by her father.

Australia to hold federal election on May 3 as polls show tight race

Australia will hold a federal election on May 3, with polls predicting a close contest between Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party and Peter Dutton’s Liberal-National coalition. Labor, defending a slim majority, is pledging free healthcare, lower student debt, and small tax cuts. The opposition vows to reduce spending, cut immigration, and lower energy costs.

Minor parties and independents, which gained record support in the last election, could play a key role in forming the next government. Cost-of-living concerns, housing affordability, and healthcare access are key voter issues.

Lukashenko sworn in for seventh term in Belarus

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was sworn in for a seventh term after winning the January 26 election with nearly 87% of the vote—a result widely condemned as fraudulent by his opponents. During the inauguration, Lukashenko mocked critics calling him “Europe’s last dictator,” claiming Belarus has more democracy than its Western counterparts.

Backed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Lukashenko has ruled since 1994, surviving mass protests in 2020. He allowed Russia to use Belarus as a launchpad for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine and later hosted some of Moscow’s tactical nuclear weapons.