Weekly Brief

Welcome to the tut0ugh Weekly Brief. This past week, diplomacy, defence, and leadership defined global affairs — as Japan elected its first female prime minister, US–Venezuela tensions escalated, and ASEAN nations advanced ceasefires and trade deals amid shifting alliances across Europe, Asia, and Africa.

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US-Venezuela tensions escalate

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has accused the United States of “fabricating a new war” after Washington deployed the USS Gerald R. Ford to the Caribbean. The Pentagon says the mission targets drug trafficking, but analysts warn it could signal a push for regime change.

• US airstrikes since September have killed at least 43 people, targeting Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua group.

• Maduro announced the deployment of 5,000 Russian-made Igla-S missiles and full coastal defences.

• US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Trump maintain operations are anti-narcotics, though Congress questions legality.

Meanwhile, Trump suspended trade talks with Canada amid a tariff dispute and signed an $8.5bn rare earths deal with Australia before departing for Asia to meet Xi Jinping and regional leaders.

ASEAN summit: Thailand–Cambodia ceasefire, Malaysia–US deal, and Trump’s Asia tour

Thailand and Cambodia signed an expanded ceasefire on Sunday (Oct. 26), witnessed by U.S. President Donald Trump at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia. The deal builds on a July truce that ended five days of border clashes which killed 48 and displaced 300,000.

Key points:

• Prime Ministers Anutin Charnvirakul and Hun Manet pledged to withdraw heavy weapons and release detained troops.

• Malaysia and the U.S. formalised a trade and critical minerals agreement.

• East Timor joined ASEAN as its 11th member, marking a symbolic milestone in regional integration.

This comes as President Donald Trump embarks on a five-day trip to Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea, aiming to secure trade, minerals, and ceasefire agreements ahead of a potential meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping.

EU unveils plan to cut reliance on Chinese critical minerals and deepen ties with Egypt amid Via Baltica launch

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has announced RESourceEU, a new strategy to reduce the bloc’s dependence on Chinese critical minerals, following Beijing’s export restrictions on rare earths. The plan includes joint purchasing, EU-based processing, and partnerships with nations such as Ukraine, Australia, and Canada.

Meanwhile, the US and Qatar have warned that the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) could undermine energy trade, calling it an “existential threat” to competitiveness.

The EU also hosted its first summit with Egypt, signing a €7.4bn support package, and inaugurated the Via Baltica, a 970km route linking Poland to the Baltics through the strategic Suwalki Gap.

Japan elects first female prime minister as Bolivia elects centrist Rodrigo Paz

Sanae Takaichi has become Japan’s first female prime minister, winning 237 votes in the lower house after weeks of political gridlock. A protégé of Shinzo Abe, she replaces Shigeru Ishiba, pledging stability and economic revival through higher public spending — a move that lifted the Nikkei index to record highs.

In Bolivia, centrist Rodrigo Paz won the presidency with 54.5% of the vote, ending nearly two decades of MAS rule. Paz vowed to restore ties with the United States, pursue market reforms, and address soaring 23% inflation. He faces governing challenges without a congressional majority.

Israel parliament advances bill to annex occupied West Bank as US urges Gaza ceasefire stability

Israel’s parliament has given initial approval to a bill extending Israeli law to the occupied West Bank, seen internationally as a step toward de facto annexation. The vote passed 25–24, alongside a separate bill to annex Maale Adumim (31–9). The legislation requires four readings to pass.

Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, reaffirming Washington’s role in maintaining the Gaza ceasefire under the Trump administration’s peace plan, which includes international oversight and reconstruction efforts.

US vice-president JD Vance branded the vote by Israel’s parliament backing annexation of the occupied West Bank a “very stupid political stunt”, Vance said the preliminary vote — which would have to be followed by three more to become law — was “weird” and that he “personally” took “some insult to it”. President Donald Trump reinforced the vice-president’s message, telling a White House press conference: “Don’t worry about the West Bank. Israel is not going to do anything with the West Bank, OK?”

Labour suffers Welsh loss as migration and security dominate UK agenda

Labour has lost its Caerphilly stronghold to Plaid Cymru, securing just 11% of the vote in a major setback for Prime Minister Keir Starmer ahead of the 2026 Welsh elections. Reform UK placed second with 36%, reflecting growing voter frustration over the economy and immigration.

At a London summit, Starmer called the Western Balkans “Europe’s crucible”, unveiling talks to host asylum return hubs and announcing sanctions on smuggling networks. Meanwhile, Channel crossings have hit 37,000 in 2025, surpassing last year’s total.

In security news, London police launched a drone-response pilot, and Defence Secretary John Healey authorised troops to shoot down hostile drones near UK military sites.

Ukraine advances air defence push as sanctions tighten on Russia

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine must expand domestic air defence production to reduce reliance on Western systems, with nearly 60% of weapons now locally made. At a London security summit, Zelenskyy met UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, NATO chief Mark Rutte, and other leaders to discuss protection of Ukraine’s energy grid and winter defences.

The US imposed new sanctions on key Russian oil exporters Rosneft and Lukoil, while Sweden agreed to transfer up to 150 Gripen fighter jets to Kyiv. Plans for a Trump–Putin peace summit were paused, as Moscow demanded Ukrainian withdrawal from the east.

EU leaders extended financial aid to Ukraine but delayed using €140bn in frozen Russian assets until December.

Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan expand partnership as Baku lifts cargo ban to Armenia

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed 15 cooperation agreements in Astana, deepening ties in energy, transport, industry, and AI. Marking 20 years of strategic partnership, both pledged to double trade to $1 billion and expand oil exports via the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline.

Aliyev announced the lifting of all cargo restrictions to Armenia, calling it proof that “peace is now in practice.” Armenian Deputy PM Mher Grigoryan welcomed the move as a step toward regional stability.

The leaders also agreed to boost freight along the Middle Corridor, targeting 10 million tonnes by 2028, and hailed the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace accord as a “new beginning” for the South Caucasus.

Independent candidate Connolly elected president as Ireland faces unrest

Independent lawmaker Catherine Connolly has been elected Ireland’s 10th president, securing 63% of the vote over Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys, who won 29.5%. Backed by Sinn Féin, Labour, and the Social Democrats, the 68-year-old’s campaign resonated with younger voters through her pro-Palestine stance and social justice focus. Connolly pledged to be “a president who listens,” succeeding Michael D. Higgins as the nation’s third female head of state.

Meanwhile, persisted this past week outside Dublin’s Citywest Hotel, which houses asylum seekers, following the alleged sexual assault of a 10-year-old girl. A 26-year-old man has been charged in connection with the incident. Demonstrations featured Irish flags, anti-immigration slogans, and clashes with police amid ongoing tension over migration policy

Indonesia–South Africa strengthen defence cooperation as Netherlands plan Uganda asylum deal

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa agreed to accelerate their 2023 Defence Cooperation Agreement, strengthening trade, defence, and political ties. Talks in Jakarta included plans for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement and joint calls for dialogue on Gaza and a two-state solution.

Meanwhile, the Netherlands plans to send rejected asylum seekers to a UNHCR- and IOM-run hub in Uganda, drawing human rights concerns.

In Morocco, the government announced youth and social reforms after protests over inequality, while Namibia launched a 2025–2030 Strategic Plan to expand trade, empower youth and women, and strengthen regional diplomacy under Agenda 2063.

Vietnam deepens European ties with new strategic partnerships

Vietnam’s Communist Party chief Tô Lâm has upgraded ties with Bulgaria and Finland to strategic partnerships, marking 75 and 50 years of diplomatic relations respectively.

In Sofia, Tô Lâm and President Rumen Radev agreed to expand cooperation in trade, defence, and technology, and to double bilateral trade under the EU–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement. Both reaffirmed support for ASEAN’s South China Sea stance and the 1982 UNCLOS.

In Helsinki, Vietnam and Finland signed a similar accord, focusing on AI, quantum technology, agriculture, and climate response. The deal strengthens ASEAN–EU ties and positions Vietnam as Finland’s largest Southeast Asian trading partner.

Rival rallies in Hungary as Croatia restores conscription

Hundreds of thousands rallied in Budapest on Revolution Memorial Day, backing either Prime Minister Viktor Orbán or opposition leader Péter Magyar ahead of the 2026 election. Orbán led a government “peace march,” accusing the EU and Ukraine of fuelling war and rejecting Kyiv’s NATO ambitions. Meanwhile, Magyar’s Tisza Party rally drew massive crowds, denouncing corruption and pledging reconciliation and reform.

In Croatia, parliament voted to reinstate compulsory military service for the first time since 2008, citing regional insecurity. The two-month training programme, starting in 2025, mirrors similar moves in Lithuania, Sweden, and France amid rising European defence concerns.

Pakistan–Afghanistan talks near breaking point as Peru declares state of emergency

Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif warned that failure to reach an agreement in Istanbul peace talks could trigger “open war” with Afghanistan, after the worst border clashes since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover. Both sides are negotiating a long-term ceasefire mechanism under the Doha accord.

Pakistan accuses the Taliban of sheltering militants behind cross-border attacks, while Kabul condemns Pakistan’s airstrikes as violations of sovereignty.

Meanwhile, Peru’s President José Jerí has imposed a 30-day state of emergency in Lima amid surging crime and unrest. Homicides have risen to 1,690 this year, with protests demanding Jerí’s resignation after Dina Boluarte’s ousting earlier this month.

Iraq to retain US advisers as Tehran urges deeper security cooperation

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has confirmed that 250–350 US military advisers will remain at Ain al-Asad air base beyond September, citing security concerns in neighbouring Syria. He said Islamic State no longer poses a major threat and reaffirmed Iraq’s neutrality, urging renewed US–Iran dialogue.

Iraq’s parliament is also debating a law to formalise ties between the army and the Popular Mobilization Forces, despite US objections.

Meanwhile, Iran’s military chief Abdolrahim Mousavi called for full implementation of the 2023 Iran–Iraq security pact, strengthening cooperation on counterterrorism, border control, and defence coordination to maintain regional stability.

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