Weekly Brief

May 25, 2025

Welcome to the tut0ugh Weekly Brief. This past week, Trump clashes with Ramaphosa during White House meeting, while the UK signed a landmark deal on Mauritius. Europe saw major political shifts and a breakthrough in post-Brexit talks.

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Trump clashes with South Africa's Ramaphosa in tense White House meeting

President Trump and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa met in Washington to discuss tensions over claims of violence against White South Africans. The meeting followed the US granting refugee status to 59 Afrikaners citing safety concerns. Ramaphosa, joined by public figures, denied systemic targeting of White citizens, urging Trump to consider a broader range of South African perspectives. 

Trump presented a video he said showed burial sites of white farmers, which South African officials, including Police Minister Senzo Mchunu, disputed, clarifying the crosses were a temporary memorial unrelated to genocide claims. South Africa’s government insists violent crime affects all races and rejects allegations of targeted killings against white farmers as unfounded.

UK signs Chagos deal with Mauritius to seal future of US-UK base

The UK has agreed to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius while retaining control of the military base on Diego Garcia for 99 years, with a possible 50-year extension. The base, vital for UK and US operations in the Middle East, Africa, and Indo-Pacific, has supported recent military and humanitarian missions. 

The deal, costing £3.4 billion overall, faced a brief legal challenge but was upheld to protect national interests. Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasised the agreement’s role in ensuring long-term strategic security and safeguarding against foreign influence. The arrangement follows changes in Mauritius’s leadership and addresses sovereignty concerns, despite criticism over cost and geopolitical effects.

Nicușor Dan wins Romanian presidential election

Centrist candidate Nicușor Dan has won Romania’s presidential election with 54% of the vote, defeating nationalist rival George Simion. The contest drew a 65% turnout—Romania’s highest in 25 years—and followed a previously annulled vote in December amid claims of Russian interference.

Simion challenged the result, alleging foreign interference and fraud. Romania’s constitutional court rejected the claim, clearing the way for Dan’s inauguration. Dan plans to build a cross-party coalition to advance political reform and stabilise governance.

Trump announces $175 Billion ‘Golden Dome’ missile defence system

President Donald Trump has announced the ‘Golden Dome’, a $175 billion satellite-based missile defence system aimed at detecting and intercepting missile threats. Led by U.S. Space Force General Michael Guetlein, the project plans to deploy hundreds of satellites and be operational by January 2029. Key sites will be in Alaska, Florida, Georgia, and Indiana, with Canada expressing interest. 

Inspired by Israel’s Iron Dome, Golden Dome seeks to extend missile defence into space on a larger scale. China has criticised the initiative, warning it could escalate the militarisation of space and spark a new arms race.

Poland’s presidential race heads to run-off after close first round

Rafal Trzaskowski of the centrist Civic Platform (PO) won 31.1% in Poland’s presidential election, narrowly ahead of Karol Nawrocki from the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, who secured 29.1%. With no candidate reaching a majority, a run-off will take place on 1 June.

The result is seen as a test of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-EU government, formed in 2023 after ending PiS’s eight-year rule. Social issues featured prominently, with Trzaskowski backing abortion and LGBTQ rights, while Nawrocki campaigned on conservative values. As Poland’s president can veto legislation, the outcome will directly impact Tusk’s ability to advance judicial reform, civil rights, and EU-aligned policies.

Portugal faces gridlock as centre-right falls short of majority

Portugal’s centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, won 89 seats in the 230-seat parliament, falling short of a majority. The Socialist Party (PS) and Chega each secured 58 seats, with PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos resigning after heavy losses.

Chega gained a record 22.6% of the vote, signalling a sharp rise in ‘far-right’ support. Despite this, Montenegro ruled out any alliance with Chega, calling the party “unreliable.” Key campaign issues included inflation, housing, and immigration. With no clear majority, AD may face legislative gridlock and will likely need to seek ad hoc agreements to govern. The vote followed Montenegro’s failed confidence motion earlier this year.

UK and EU agree post-Brexit reset after ‘breakthrough’ in talks

The UK and EU have agreed a wide-ranging partnership to strengthen economic and security ties, marking the most significant reset since Brexit. Announced at a London summit, the deal aims to ease trade, boost cooperation, and potentially raise UK exports by £9bn.

Key elements include reduced veterinary checks on food exports, a proposed link between carbon trading systems, and a defence pact that could open access to a €150bn EU fund. In exchange, the UK extended EU access to its fishing waters for 12 years, prompting criticism from industry groups and opposition leaders. The government pledged £360mn for coastal communities and confirmed ongoing talks on youth mobility and further collaboration.

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