Weekly Brief

Welcome to the tut0ugh Weekly Brief. This past week, Ukraine peace efforts, defence posturing, electoral shifts, and major policy reforms highlighted an international environment marked by volatility and strategic recalibration.

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Pressure mounts on Ukraine as Washington advances 28-point peace plan

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Ukraine may face a choice between “losing its dignity” or risking the loss of a “key partner”, after Washington circulated a 28-point peace plan that Kyiv says crosses longstanding red lines. Zelenskyy confirmed he would review the proposal — drafted by aides to US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin — but insisted Ukraine would “offer alternatives” and remain committed to diplomacy.

The plan includes major territorial concessions, a ban on future NATO membership, staged lifting of US sanctions, and a pathway for Russia to rejoin the G8. Vladimir Putin said the plan could form a basis for talks, while EU foreign ministers rejected the approach, stressing Kyiv must lead any negotiation.

President Donald Trump said Volodymyr Zelenskiy would ultimately “have to approve” a settlement, citing winter pressures, rising casualties, and attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid. European, Canadian, and Japanese officials raised concerns over potential border changes and limits on Ukraine’s armed forces, saying the draft “is a basis which will require additional work” to ensure a just and lasting peace.

Top US, Ukrainian and European officials are due to meet in Geneva, Switzerland, on Sunday (Nov. 23) to discuss next steps for ending the war.

UK unveils major asylum overhaul and new earned settlement system

The UK Government has announced a major overhaul of asylum and legal migration rules, with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood outlining the reforms to MPs. The asylum plan seeks to reduce irregular arrivals, tighten support, and accelerate removals, including shorter leave to remain, stricter family reunion rules, a 20-year path to settlement, expanded right-to-work checks, and new return hubs. An annual cap will govern “safe and legal” routes.

A parallel reform would replace automatic settlement with an “earned” system. Proposed changes extend eligibility for indefinite leave to remain to ten years, with criteria on English proficiency, contributions, and criminal records, while fast-tracks may apply for skilled workers and NHS staff.  Skilled workers and higher earners may be fast-tracked; some could settle after three years. NHS doctors and nurses may access settlement after five years. Migrants on benefits could face waits of up to 20 years. Those arriving illegally may wait up to 30 years. Opposition and civil society responses were mixed, with concerns over bureaucracy, integration, and long-term uncertainty.

South Africa hosts G20 Summit amid US boycott; COP30 delivers compromise climate deal

The 2025 G20 Summit opened in South Africa on Saturday (Nov. 22), the first held on the African continent, with a focus on climate resilience, debt relief, and fairer access to critical minerals. The meeting proceeded without the United States, after President Donald Trump and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio rejected the agenda. UN Secretary-General António Guterres and French President Emmanuel Macron urged continued cooperation, while President Cyril Ramaphosa said South Africa “will not be bullied”.

Leaders adopted a climate-focused declaration that Washington condemned, as Argentina’s President Javier Milei also withdrew.

At COP30 in Brazil, World governments have agreed a compromise climate deal boosting finance for developing nations but omitting any reference to fossil fuels. The accord concluded after extended negotiations and highlighted divisions between wealthier and developing countries, as well as contrasting positions on oil, gas, and coal. COP30 President André Aranha Corrêa do Lago announced new roadmaps on deforestation and energy transitions.

Poland probes sabotage linked to Russian intelligence; UK boosts defence industry amid Yantar laser incident

Poland is investigating suspected sabotage on key rail lines after Prime Minister Donald Tusk said two Ukrainian citizens are believed to have acted on behalf of Russian intelligence. Prosecutors have opened a case into “acts of sabotage of a terrorist nature” following an explosion on the Warsaw–Lublin line and damage to power infrastructure near Pulawy. No injuries were reported. The Kremlin, via spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, dismissed the allegations as “Russophobia”.

Separately, UK Defence Secretary John Healey confirmed that Russian intelligence ship Yantar directed lasers at Royal Air Force pilots monitoring its activity near UK waters — the first recorded incident of its kind. Healey also outlined plans for defence-industrial expansion, including new munitions, energetics, and drone factories.

Israel strikes Gaza amid ceasefire dispute; UN backs US plan for long-term stabilisation

Israel launched new strikes on Hamas positions in Gaza on Saturday (Nov. 22), accusing the group of a “blatant violation” of the ceasefire after an alleged gunman crossed into Israeli-held territory. Gaza health authorities reported at least 24 deaths and 54 injuries across four strikes, while Hamas rejected Israel’s claims and said it remains committed to the truce. Palestinian officials say 316 people have been killed since the ceasefire began; Israel reports three soldiers killed and dozens of militants targeted.

Separately, the UN Security Council adopted a US-drafted resolution supporting US President Donald Trump’s 20-point stabilisation plan for Gaza. The measure authorises an International Stabilization Force, establishes a Board of Peace to oversee governance until 2027, and empowers the World Bank to manage reconstruction funds.

Germany unveils national space strategy; Kosovo heads to snap December election

Germany has approved its first national space strategy, signalling a major expansion of military space capabilities as Berlin responds to rising Russian and Chinese activity in orbit. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius reaffirmed plans to invest €35 billion in military space technologies by 2030, making Germany the world’s third-largest spender in the sector. The strategy prioritises surveillance, deterrence, and international cooperation, with plans for national satellite constellations, ground stations, launch systems, and potential offensive tools such as jamming systems and “inspector satellites”.

In Kosovo, parliament has been dissolved ahead of a 28 December snap election after parties failed to form a government. Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s VV party fell short of a majority, while President Vjosa Osmanisaid the deadlock reflects wider political strain, including limited progress on EU accession.

South Korea and UAE expand strategic tech ties; Canada and Sweden launch defence partnership

South Korea and the United Arab Emirates have agreed to deepen cooperation in AI, aerospace, nuclear energy, and defence following talks in Abu Dhabi between UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, Seoul said. Seven MoUs will expand collaboration in advanced technology, the economy, and intellectual property, alongside plans for joint weapons development and increased ADNOC oil stockpiles in South Korea. The meeting also advanced the 2024 free trade agreement.

Separately, Canada and Sweden have launched a strategic partnership on defence, trade, innovation, and Arctic cooperation during a visit by King Carl XVI Gustaf and Queen Silvia, complementing discussions on potential Gripen production in Canada.

US unveils offshore drilling plan; Washington lifts 40% tariff on Brazilian agriculture

The Trump administration has unveiled a five-year offshore drilling plan that would reopen federal waters off California and parts of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico to future oil leasing. The proposal schedules lease sales in California from 2027 and in the Eastern Gulf from 2029, drawing opposition from California Governor Gavin Newsom and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who cited environmental, economic, and military risks. Florida Republicans, including Representative Byron Donalds, also warned of conflicts with defence activity.

Industry groups called the plan “forward-looking”, while environmental organisations warned of spill risks.

Separately, the US has lifted a 40% tariff on selected Brazilian agricultural exports, including coffee and beef, to ease domestic food prices. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva welcomed the exemptions, which Washington linked to “initial progress” in negotiations. Analysts said the shift reflects primarily US domestic inflation pressures.

Nigeria hit by mass school kidnappings; Bangladesh’s ex-PM Sheikh Hasina sentenced to death

Armed groups carried out two major school kidnappings in Nigeria, with the Christian Association of Nigeria confirming 303 students and 12 teachers were abducted in Niger State after a verification exercise. A separate attack in Kebbi State saw 25 schoolgirls seized and a vice-principal killed, despite reports that security forces had prior intelligence.

The incidents come amid heightened scrutiny from US President Donald Trump, who has warned of a “Christian genocide” — a characterisation the Nigerian government rejects. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth urged “urgent and enduring action” to protect Christian communities during talks with Nigeria’s national security adviser.

In Bangladesh, deposed prime minister Sheikh Hasina has been sentenced to death in absentia by the International Crimes Tribunal, led by Justice Golam Mortuza Mozumder, for crimes against humanity during the 2024 student uprising. Hasina, in exile in India, denounced the ruling as politically motivated. Former home minister Asaduzzaman Khan was also sentenced, while former police chief Chowdhury Abdullah al-Mamun received leniency. The UN estimates up to 1,400 deaths during the unrest.

Ecuador rejects foreign bases; Chile election heads to decisive December run-off

Ecuadorian voters have rejected proposals to allow foreign military bases and to convene a constitutional assembly, dealing a setback to President Daniel Noboa. Results show nearly two-thirds voting “no” to restoring bases — blocking any potential US return to the former Manta site closed in 2008. Noboa said he respected the outcome and would continue tackling organised crime with existing tools.

Chile’s presidential race will head to a 14 December 2025 run-off after no candidate won a majority. Jeannette Jara led narrowly ahead of José Antonio Kast, with the campaign dominated by crime, immigration, and the growth of foreign gangs. Both candidates have pledged stronger action on organised crime and irregular migration.

Dutch suspend Nexperia takeover move; Pyongyang denounces Seoul–Washington nuclear-sub plan

The Netherlands has suspended its plan to take supervisory control of semiconductor firm Nexperia, easing a six-week EU–China dispute that disrupted automotive supply chains. Vincent Karremans, Dutch Minister of Economic Affairs, said the move was a goodwill gesture after “constructive” talks with Beijing. China had halted exports of Nexperia chips following the 30 September order, prompting production pauses in Mexico, before lifting its ban on 9 November.

Separately, North Korea has warned that a new security agreement between South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and the United States to jointly develop nuclear-powered submarines could trigger a “nuclear domino” in the Asia-Pacific. State media KCNA called the plan a destabilising “attempt at confrontation”, vowing “justified and realistic countermeasures”.

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