Weekly Brief

Welcome to the tut0ugh Weekly Brief. This past week, escalating US-Europe tensions over Greenland, elections, defence pacts, and diplomatic confrontations reshaped global politics across Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas.

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US–Europe tensions rise as Trump links tariffs to Greenland demand

US President Donald Trump has threatened escalating tariffs on European allies unless the United States is allowed to purchase Greenland, intensifying tensions with Denmark and partners. Trump said 10 per cent import tariffs would begin on 1 February, rising to 25 per cent from June, targeting Denmark, Nordic states, major EU economies, and United Kingdom.

Lars Løkke Rasmussen said the move was a “surprise”, stressing Denmark’s territorial integrity and Greenlandic self-determination are non-negotiable. Keir Starmer criticised tariffs on security partners, while Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa pledged EU solidarity.

Talks in Washington involving JD Vance and Marco Rubio failed to bridge differences. Vivian Motzfeldt said Greenland remains open to dialogue, but not sale

EU and Mercosur sign landmark free trade deal after 25 years

Senior officials from the European Union and Mercosur have signed a landmark free trade agreement in Paraguay, ending 25 years of negotiations and creating one of the world’s largest free trade zones. The pact will remove tariffs on more than 90 per cent of bilateral trade between the EU and Mercosur members Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, with Bolivia expected to accede later.

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, described the deal’s geopolitical significance as “impossible to overstate”, framing it as a choice of fair trade over protectionism. The signing followed EU approval by qualified majority despite opposition from France, Poland, Austria, Ireland, and Hungary, and a Belgian abstention.

The agreement now faces ratification by the European Parliament and national legislatures, where resistance—particularly from farming groups—is expected.

Uganda election: Museveni extends rule as opposition rejects results

Yoweri Museveni has been re-elected to a seventh term, extending his rule since 1986, according to Uganda’s electoral commission. Official results gave Museveni 71.65%, ahead of opposition challenger Bobi Wine on 24.72%, after a tense campaign criticised by international observers.

The United Nations and election monitors cited repression, intimidation, and arrests targeting opposition figures and civil society. A nationwide internet shutdown disrupted monitoring and deepened distrust, said African Union observers led by Goodluck Jonathan. Opposition leaders rejected the outcome as security was reinforced in Kampala, while conflicting casualty claims emerged after violence in Butambala.

Museveni’s National Resistance Movement also led parliamentary results.

Iran’s supreme leader blames Trump for deadly protests as unrest subsides

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accused US President Donald Trump of masterminding a foreign backed “sedition” behind the deadliest protests in the Islamic republic’s history, speaking after security forces reasserted control. In a Tehran address, Khamenei said Washington openly encouraged unrest and blamed foreign-linked terrorist elements for thousands of deaths and widespread destruction.

The protests erupted amid acute economic strain, with the rial losing 40 per cent of its value, inflation exceeding 40 per cent, and food prices rising sharply.

Khamenei urged national unity and called on President Masoud Pezeshkian’s government to accelerate economic relief, while warning Iran would respond to any further external aggression.

Canada and China forge new strategic partnership reset trade ties 

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada is forging a new strategic partnership with China to adapt to a rapidly shifting global trade system, following the first Canadian prime ministerial visit to Beijing since 2017. Carney cited technological disruption, the energy transition, and weakening multilateral institutions as drivers of a global trade “rupture”.

Carney confirmed talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, alongside trade measures to stabilise ties after years of strain. Canada will admit up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles at a 6.1 per cent tariff, replacing the 100 per cent levy imposed in 2024. Beijing will cut canola seed tariffs to around 15 per cent and suspend duties on canola meal, seafood, and peas, supporting nearly $3bn in new Canadian export orders.

The deal underpins Ottawa’s push to diversify trade beyond the United States, while positioning China as a more predictable economic partner.

Japan expands partnerships with Philippines, Italy, and US

Japan and the Philippines have signed a new defence logistics pact to strengthen Indo-Pacific security. The Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement, signed in Manila by Toshimitsu Motegi and Theresa Lazaro, enables tax-free logistical support during joint activities, building on the 2024 Reciprocal Access Agreement and reaffirming opposition to unilateral changes in the East and South China Seas.

Separately, Japan and Italy agreed to deepen cooperation on critical minerals, with Sanae Takaichi and Giorgia Meloni backing a “special strategic partnership” amid rare-earth supply risks linked to China.

Meanwhile, Tokyo and Washington expanded defence production and drills after talks between Shinjiro Koizumi and Pete Hegseth, focusing on Okinawa, missile production, and defence supply chains, as Japan advances a record defence budget.

US launches Gaza phase two amid ceasefire gaps and disarmament hurdles

The United States has launched phase two of its Gaza plan, despite key elements of phase one—including a full Israel–Hamas ceasefire—remaining unfulfilled. Israeli airstrikes, border access delays, and unresolved hostage issues have complicated implementation.

Announcing the move, Steve Witkoff, Special Envoy of President Donald Trump, said phase two establishes a transitional technocratic Palestinian administration in Gaza, tasked with reconstruction and initiating demilitarisation. The 15-member body will be led by Ali Shaath, a former Palestinian Authority deputy minister, and overseen by an international “Board of Peace”, with Nickolay Mladenov expected to represent it on the ground.

Hamas has agreed to relinquish governance but continues to reject disarmament, a central challenge as mediators Egypt, Qatar, and Türkiye push talks forward. The Palestinian Authority, represented by Hussein al-Sheikh, backed the plan, stressing unified governance and security.

India and Germany deepen defence and trade ties under Modi-Merz talks 

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Gandhinagar, Gujarat, to deepen economic, industrial, and security cooperation between India and Europe’s largest economy. Germany remains India’s largest trading partner in the European Union, with both leaders signalling expanded collaboration across trade, defence, and strategic industries.

Key outcomes included a defence industrial roadmap covering joint development and production, and plans for Thyssenkrupp to partner with Indian firms to build six conventional submarines domestically. The talks also advanced cooperation on climate action, energy, skills, health, education, and rare earth mining, alongside an agreement easing access for Indian healthcare professionals to Germany.

Merz described India as a “partner of choice” and urged progress on the India–EU free trade agreement, as New Delhi diversifies trade amid higher US tariffs.

US-Taiwan trade deal cuts tariffs to 15% in return for $250bn chip investment 

The United States and Taiwan have signed a trade agreement reducing most US tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15 per cent, in return for $250bn in Taiwanese semiconductor investment to reinforce US supply chains. The deal, reached under President Donald Trump, aligns Taiwan’s tariff rate with Japan and South Korea, while waiving levies on generic medicines, aerospace components, and selected natural resources.

Central to the agreement is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, which will expand US manufacturing capacity while retaining core production in Taiwan. The pact includes tariff-free semiconductor quotas tied to US investment and shields Taiwan’s chip sector after earlier threats of 100 per cent tariffs.

Implementation remains subject to parliamentary approval in Taipei.

Syria advances in north after SDF withdrawal; tensions persist

Syria’s army has expanded control across northern Syria, dislodging Kurdish-led forces from areas they had administered for over a decade, despite international calls for restraint. The advance followed developments the previous day, when Syrian government forces re-entered Deir Hafer, east of Aleppo, after SDF commander Mazloum Abdi confirmed a redeployment east of the Euphrates under the March 10 integration framework.

State media reported the capture of Tabqa, key dams near Raqqa, and oilfields along the Euphrates after integration talks stalled. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) accused Damascus of violating withdrawal terms as clashes continued.

The push comes under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who has issued decrees recognising Kurdish as a national language, restoring citizenship to stateless Kurds, and declaring Nowruz a national holiday. The United States, France, and Iraqi Kurdish leaders urged de-escalation amid mounting instability.

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