Weekly Brief

Welcome to the tut0ugh Weekly Brief. This past week, breakthrough trade deals, heightened regional flashpoints, stalled negotiations, intensified military activity, and significant political transitions, underscoring a rapidly shifting international landscape across Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and the Americas.

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US ends 43-day government shutdown; Washington unveils multi-regional trade agreements

President Donald Trump signed legislation ending the 43-day US government shutdown, the longest in history. The House passed the funding bill 222–209, with Republican unity prevailing despite Democratic objections over health-insurance subsidies. Federal workers are expected to return from Thursday, though the pace of full-service restoration is unclear. Trump said: “We can never let this happen again.”

The shutdown delayed major economic data, with weekly GDP losses estimated at over one-tenth of a percentage point. The deal funds operations until 30 January, while a December Senate vote on subsidies awaits clarity from Speaker Mike Johnson.

Separately, the US announced new framework trade agreements with Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, El Salvador, Switzerland, and South Korea, covering tariff adjustments, investment commitments, and expanded cooperation across agriculture, pharmaceuticals, industry, and defence.

Japan–China tensions rise as Beijing warns against intervention in Taiwan

Japan has lodged a formal protest with China after Consul General Xue Jian posted comments Japan described as “extremely inappropriate” towards Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, following her suggestion that Tokyo could respond militarily if Beijing attacked Taiwan. Xue’s post, which referenced “cutting off that dirty neck,” prompted condemnation from Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara and U.S. Ambassador George Glass, who called it a threat to the Japanese people.

Beijing defended Xue, with Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian labelling Takaichi’s remarks “wrongful and dangerous” and urging Japan to reflect on its “historical responsibilities.” Lin later intensified criticism, warning that any suggestion of Japanese armed intervention in the Taiwan Strait violates the one-China principle and “will not be tolerated.”

Congo peace effort advances in Doha; Thai–Cambodian accord put on hold

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the M23 armed group have signed a new framework agreement in Doha, backed by the United States and Qatar, in a renewed bid to halt violence in eastern Congo. Massad Boulos, the top US envoy, said the framework contains eight protocols, though most still require implementation plans. 

Earlier progress — including July’s declaration of principles and an October ceasefire-monitoring deal — has been slow, with core issues unresolved. Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi, Qatar’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, said peace must be built through “confidence, mutual respect and sincere commitment.”

Separately, Thailand has suspended its peace agreement with Cambodia after a landmine blast injured two Thai soldiers near the Sisaket border. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said security risks remain high, while Cambodia reiterated its commitment to peace. The October accord, mediated by US President Donald Trump, included mine clearance and weapons withdrawal.

Ukraine launches mass drone production as ministers resign amid corruption probe

Ukraine has begun mass-producing its new domestically developed interceptor drones, the Ukrainian Defence Ministry confirmed, as the war with Russia enters its fourth year. Three manufacturers have launched production, with 11 more preparing lines. The system, based on the ‘Octopus’ platform and tested against Shahed-type drones, is designed to strengthen air defences as Kyiv faces continued long-range strikes. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has set a target of 1,000 units per day.

Separately, Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko confirmed the resignations of Justice Minister German Galushchenko and Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk amid a $100m corruption probe linked to Energoatom. Zelenskiy called corruption in the energy sector “absolutely unacceptable.”

US launches Operation Southern Spear as regional tensions intensify 

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth announced Operation Southern Spear, following President Donald Trump’s directive to expand action against regional narcotics networks. Washington has increased its naval and air posture across Latin America and the Caribbean, deploying the USS Gerald R. Ford and additional assets under SOUTHCOM. 

Reports suggest updated US military options for Venezuela, which has launched nationwide exercises; Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino said the country is “ready” but “doesn’t want war.”

Separately, Colombian President Gustavo Petro suspended intelligence cooperation with the US over missile strikes on vessels that have killed at least 75 people. The UK has reportedly also reviewed intelligence-sharing amid legal concerns, though US Secretary of State Marco Rubio rejected claims of a rift.

Guinea launches operations at Simandou, Africa’s largest greenfield mining project

Operations have begun at Simandou, Guinea’s flagship greenfield mining and infrastructure project — a development built entirely from scratch on previously unused land. The launch marks a major step for West Africa’s high-grade iron ore sector in 2025.

The ceremony, attended by the President of the Republic of Guinea and partners Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS), Baowu, Chinalco, and Rio Tinto, opens activity at one of the world’s largest untapped deposits. The project spans over 600 km of trans-Guinean rail and new port facilities in Forécariah, with initial ore transport already under way.

Authorities say the project will strengthen economic sovereignty, with Compagnie du TransGuinéen (CTG) operating infrastructure and export capacity expected to reach 120 million tonnes annually.

Türkiye–Cyprus tensions sharpen over two-state push

Türkiye’s President Tayyip Erdogan reaffirmed that a two-state arrangement remains the most “realistic” solution to the Cyprus dispute, speaking in Ankara alongside Turkish Cypriot President Tufan Erhürman, who has signalled openness to a UN-backed federal model. Erdogan argued Greek Cypriots fear being reduced to a minority, while Erhürman said Turkish Cypriots are “founding partners” with sovereign rights, including over energy resources.

In Berlin, Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides said Türkiye cannot advance its EU membership bid while insisting on two states and urged the EU to block Ankara’s access to the SAFE defence fund. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Berlin would support renewed diplomacy.

Australia and Indonesia advance new security pact; Canada–India push to reset relations

Australia and Indonesia have agreed a new security treaty, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and President Prabowo Subianto announcing in Sydney that both countries will consult one another if their security is threatened. Albanese said the pact extends earlier agreements and creates a regular high-level security dialogue, while Prabowo described it as a commitment to “close cooperation” for regional stability. 

Foreign Minister Penny Wong said the treaty, expected to be signed in 2026, is modelled on a 1995 accord withdrawn after the East Timor crisis.

Separately, Canada and India are deepening efforts to rebuild relations after a 2023 diplomatic dispute. International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu met Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal in New Delhi for one of the highest-level engagements since talks froze, focusing on aerospace, AI, critical minerals, and energy. Prime Minister Mark Carney has prioritised resetting ties, with both governments under pressure from shifting global trade conditions and US tariff measures.

Kazakhstan deepens alliance with Russia; Tashkent unveils $1.3bn in new projects

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and President Vladimir Putin have agreed to deepen Kazakhstan–Russia cooperation, signing a declaration elevating ties to a “comprehensive strategic partnership and alliance.” The agreement strengthens coordination across trade, energy, investment, security, and humanitarian affairs. 

Bilateral trade reached US$28.7bn in 2024, with 96% now conducted in national currencies, while over 17,000 Russian enterprises operate in Kazakhstan. Tokayev highlighted the “irreversible nature” of the partnership, which includes cooperation in Baikonur and Baiterek, and support for Kazakhstan’s BRICS partner status.

Separately, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan announced US$1.3bn in new projects during Tokayev’s visit to Tashkent, aiming to raise trade to US$10bn by 2030. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev launched seven major initiatives and awarded Tokayev the Oliy Darajali Dustlik order.

US eases Syria sanctions during al-Sharaa visit; Ireland inaugurates new president

The United States has issued a new six-month waiver lifting key Caesar Act sanctions on Syria, coinciding with President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s landmark visit to Washington — the first by a Syrian leader to the White House. Al-Sharaa met US President Donald Trump to discuss bilateral cooperation and Syria’s reintegration. The US Treasury said the waiver aims to support reconstruction and counter-terrorism efforts. Al-Sharaa, who replaced Bashar al-Assad, has sought to present Syria as stable and inclusive, while Trump signalled interest in future cooperation involving Israel.

Separately, Catherine Connolly has been inaugurated as the 10th President of Ireland, succeeding Michael D. Higgins. In her address at Dublin Castle, Connolly pledged climate action, social inclusion, and national unity, calling the presidency “a steady hand and a catalyst for change.”

Germany advances military service reform; al-Sudani leads Iraq’s parliamentary election

Germany’s coalition parties have agreed a revised model for military service reform, their second attempt after a 2024 deal collapsed. Senior CDU and SPD lawmakers finalised a plan requiring all 18-year-olds to undergo mandatory registration, questionnaires, and medical screening. Any move to compulsory service would require a parliamentary vote, with incentives offered to volunteers, including €2,600 monthly pay and licence subsidies. The Bundeswehr aims to expand to 260,000 active troops and significantly grow its reserves. The draft law is expected in parliament by year-end.

Separately, Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and his Reconstruction and Change coalition lead the 2025 parliamentary election with 1.3 million votes. Turnout reached 56%, though critics say the system favours established parties. Coalition-building will again be required in Iraq’s 329-seatparliament.

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