Weekly Brief

March 16, 2025

Welcome to the tut0ugh Weekly Brief. This past week, Ukraine backs U.S. ceasefire plan, Canada gets new PM, Romania blocks Georgescu’s rerun, Portugal calls a snap election and Philippines’ Duterte’s faces ICC charges. Plus, Armenia and Azerbaijan agree on treaty terms, Syria strikes deal with SDF, and Greenland’s centre-right wins election.

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Ukraine agrees to U.S. ceasefire proposal, Putin seeks root cause resolution

The U.S. resumed military and intelligence support for Ukraine after Kyiv endorsed a U.S. ceasefire proposal on Tuesday (Mar. 11). The next day, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited a command post in Kursk, where his military leadership reported significant territorial gains. He ordered troops to expel Ukrainian forces from the border region “in the shortest time possible” and suggested creating a buffer zone.

While Russia advanced in Kursk, its offensives elsewhere stalled. Ukrainian forces repelled assaults near Pokrovsk and launched counterattacks in Toretsk. On Thursday (Mar. 13), Putin said Russia agreed in principle to the U.S. ceasefire proposal but insisted on addressing the conflict’s root causes. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Putin of stalling. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer later called Putin’s response insufficient and urged collective pressure for a truce.

Mark Carney sworn in as Canada’s 24th prime minister

Mark Carney was sworn in as Canada’s 24th prime minister on Friday (Mar. 14), succeeding Justin Trudeau after nearly a decade in office. His leadership comes amid a political turnaround for the Liberal Party, which had been trailing the Conservatives.

Until recently, the Liberals were expected to suffer a major defeat in this year’s federal election, as the Conservatives gained support amid rising discontent over the cost of living and housing shortages. However, growing U.S.-Canada tensions have boosted Liberal support, erasing a 26-point deficit in just six weeks. With federal elections required by October 20, analysts suggest Carney may call an early vote to capitalise on the party’s momentum.

Romania’s top court bars Călin Georgescu from presidential rerun

Romania’s Constitutional Court has barred nationalist candidate Călin Georgescu from running in the May presidential election rerun, upholding a decision by the Central Electoral Bureau. Georgescu, who unexpectedly won the first round last November through a viral TikTok campaign, was disqualified over election rule violations. His appeal was unanimously rejected by all nine justices, making the ruling final.

The court previously annulled his 2024 victory over allegations of undeclared campaign financing and digital fraud, with suspected Russian interference. Moscow has denied any links to Georgescu. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the election illegitimate without Georgescu. Presidential candidates have until March 19 to register, with the first round scheduled for May 4 and a run-off on May 18.

Portugal calls snap election after government loses confidence vote

Portugal will hold an early parliamentary election on May 18, its third in just over three years, after the centre-right minority government lost a confidence vote. President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced the decision after consulting political leaders and his advisory council, which unanimously supported a snap election.

Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, now leading a caretaker government, had called the confidence vote after the opposition sought a parliamentary inquiry into his family’s data protection consultancy. While Montenegro denies wrongdoing, prosecutors are reviewing allegations without launching a formal investigation. Polls suggest a close race between Montenegro’s alliance and the opposition Socialists, both around 30%, raising concerns about continued political instability. The right-wing Chega party remains in third place but has seen a slight drop in support due to internal scandals.

Armenia and Azerbaijan agree treaty terms to end decades conflict

Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed on the text of a peace treaty to formally end nearly 40 years of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the signing remains uncertain, as Azerbaijan insists on changes to Armenia’s constitution, which it claims makes implicit territorial claims. Armenia denies this, but Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has acknowledged the need for constitutional reform and proposed a referendum, though no date has been set.

The peace process accelerated after Azerbaijan recaptured Karabakh in September 2023, leading to the mass exodus of the region’s ethnic Armenian population. Despite progress, relations remain tense, with their shared border still closed and militarised.

Escalating trade disputes roil markets and boost gold

Trade tensions escalated this past week as China imposed tariffs on $22 billion worth of U.S. goods on Monday (Mar. 10), primarily targeting agricultural exports like soybeans, pork, and seafood. In a separate dispute, President Trump initially threatened, then backed down from, tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminium, and electricity on Tuesday (Mar. 11), prompting Ontario to pause surcharges on electricity exports to the U.S.

Meanwhile, the EU and Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports in response to Trump’s 25% global steel and aluminium duties, which took effect on Wednesday (Mar. 12). Markets reacted sharply, with the S&P 500 dropping over 10% in a month, while gold prices surged past $3,000 per troy ounce as investors sought a safe haven. Central banks continue increasing gold reserves amid concerns over geopolitical instability and U.S. trade policies.

Syria strikes deal with SDF; Interim leader signs temporary constitution for five-year transition

Syria’s government has reached an agreement with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to integrate them into the national army and implement a nationwide ceasefire. The deal, set to be completed by year’s end, will bring north-east Syria under government control for the first time since 2012, including its borders, airports, and oilfields. It also recognizes Kurdish cultural rights, which were previously restricted.

Meanwhile, Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has signed a constitutional declaration outlining a five-year transitional period following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. The new framework maintains Islamic law as the primary source of legislation while ensuring judicial independence, media freedom, and women’s rights. A committee will draft a permanent constitution, with elections to follow.

Former Philippine President Duterte faces ICC charges

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested in Manila on Tuesday (Mar. 11) and transferred to The Hague at the request of the International Criminal Court (ICC). His arrest marks a major step in the ICC’s investigation into alleged crimes against humanity during his anti-drug campaign, which killed thousands between 2016 and 2022. Duterte, who once withdrew the Philippines from the ICC, has long defended the crackdown, insisting police only killed in self-defence.

Appearing before the court on Friday (Mar. 14), he was informed of the charges against him. A pre-trial hearing is set for September 23 to determine if the case will proceed. If convicted, Duterte faces a maximum sentence of life imprisonment, though a full trial could take years.

Greenland’s centre-right opposition wins election amid independence debate

Greenland’s centre-right Democratic Party has won a surprise victory in the general election, securing around 30% of the vote. Led by Jens-Frederik Nielsen, the party supports a gradual approach to independence from Denmark and must now negotiate a coalition. While most major parties back independence, they differ on the timeline. Domestic concerns, including fisheries laws, also played a role in the election outcome.

Greenland, which controls its internal affairs while Denmark handles foreign and defence policy, has drawn U.S. interest due to its strategic location and resources. U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his belief that the U.S. should annex Greenland on Thursday (Mar. 13), telling NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte that U.S. control of Greenland is necessary to enhance international security.

U.S. Senate passes spending bill to avoid shutdown; Trump orders strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen

The U.S. Senate passed a Republican-led short-term spending bill in a 54-46 vote on Friday (Mar. 14), preventing a government shutdown. The bill funds the government through September, increasing defence spending while cutting $13 billion from non-defence programs. Democrats criticised it as giving the Trump administration unchecked spending power but supported it to avoid a shutdown.

Meanwhile, the U.S. launched large-scale strikes against Houthi-controlled targets in Yemen, aiming to restore Red Sea shipping security. The attacks, ordered by President Trump, targeted radars, missile systems, and air defences. Officials stated the strikes also served as a warning to Iran amid ongoing nuclear negotiations. While some advisers push for a broader campaign, Trump has yet to approve deeper involvement, wary of prolonged Middle East conflicts. The operation may continue for days, depending on Houthi retaliation.