Weekly Brief

Welcome to the tut0ugh Weekly Brief. This past week, regional elections, international security pacts, and trade initiatives highlighted the ongoing recalibration of global alliances and strategies.

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Munich Security Conference convenes world leaders to address global order

The 62nd Munich Security Conference (MSC) opened on Friday (13 February) amid rising transatlantic tensions and a volatile global security environment. MSC Chairman Wolfgang Ischinger highlighted “growing insecurity” and questioned the reliability of the U.S.–Europe partnership. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned of a widening “divide” between Europe and the United States.

The three-day conference, attended by over 1,000 delegates from 115 countries—including around 60 heads of state and government—focuses on transatlantic relations, multilateralism, regional conflicts, and the future global order. 

Japan’s Takaichi wins big in snap elections

Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a two-thirds parliamentary supermajority after her Liberal Democratic Party won 316 seats in the 465-member lower house, according to NHK projections. With 36 seats from coalition partner Japan Innovation Party, the government gained 352 seats, strengthening Takaichi’s mandate to pursue economic growth, immigration reforms, and expanded defence capabilities amid regional security tensions.

Takaichi pledged to strengthen military policy and economic security while seeking broader parliamentary backing. She faces pressure to increase defence spending amid tensions involving China and strategic alignment with the United States, where President Donald Trump welcomed the result. Analysts note potential diplomatic sensitivity with South Korea, given historical tensions and regional security concerns linked to North Korea.

António José Seguro wins Portuguese presidency as Chega gains ground

Portugal elected moderate socialist António José Seguro as president with 66.8% of votes, defeating challenger André Ventura, who secured 33.2%. The vote, held despite severe storm disruption, determines the successor to outgoing President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. Seguro pledged to uphold democracy and cooperate with Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s government.

Ventura’s Chega achieved its strongest electoral showing, reinforcing its influence on the right. European leaders, including Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen, congratulated Seguro, highlighting Portugal’s democratic resilience and continued commitment to European cooperation.

African Union summit targets water security, global reform, and climate resilience

Leaders from across the African Union met in Addis Ababa for the 39th AU Assembly, focusing on water security, climate resilience, and institutional reform under Agenda 2063. UN Secretary-General António Guterres, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa attended, reflecting growing global engagement in African development and security priorities. Guterres called the lack of permanent African representation on the United Nations Security Council “indefensible”, urging financial reform, climate funding expansion, and African-led peace initiatives.

Meloni promoted Europe–Africa cooperation through Italy’s Mattei Plan, proposing debt-to-investment conversions and disaster-related loan suspension clauses. Discussions also addressed stabilisation efforts in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, alongside sustainable resource governance and economic reform challenges.

Thailand’s Bhumjaithai forms coalition with Pheu Thai after decisive election victory

Thailand is set to form a new coalition government after the Bhumjaithai Party secured 193 of 500 parliamentary seats in the 2026 general election. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul confirmed an alliance with the Pheu Thai Party, which won 74 seats, creating a parliamentary majority and signalling efforts to stabilise governance following recent political turbulence.

The People’s Party finished second with 118 seats. Pheu Thai maintains links to imprisoned former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, whose political network remains influential. The coalition follows tensions linked to former premier Paetongtarn Shinawatra and regional disputes involving Cambodia, with the government prioritising economic recovery and political stability.

US boosts regional influence through Armenia nuclear agreement and Azerbaijan strategic defence deal

Armenia and the United States expanded civil nuclear cooperation through a 123 Agreement signed by Nikol Pashinyan and JD Vance. The deal enables up to $5bn in US nuclear exports and $4bn in fuel and maintenance, supporting Armenia’s transition from the ageing Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant. Mikhail Galuzin said Rosatom remains ready to offer alternatives. The agreement follows the 2025 Armenia–Azerbaijan peace accord and broader South Caucasus transport initiatives.

Separately, the US and Azerbaijan signed a strategic partnership with Ilham Aliyev, covering defence sales, AI cooperation, maritime security, and energy diversification. Washington also promoted regional trade corridor projects linking Türkiye, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

Bangladesh BNP landslide victory positions Tarique Rahman for premiership

Tarique Rahman declared victory after the Bangladesh Nationalist Party secured 212 of 299 parliamentary seats in Bangladesh’s 2026 election. Rahman, prime minister-in-waiting, called for national unity and dedicated the result to those who “sacrificed for democracy”. The Bangladesh Election Commission confirmed the outcome, with the Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance winning 77 seats.

Interim leader Muhammad Yunus congratulated Rahman, highlighting prospects for stability and development. Jamaat chief Shafiqur Rahman accepted the results despite earlier concerns. The Awami League was barred from contesting. Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, welcomed the election outcome and pledged cooperation with the incoming government.

Somalia and Saudi Arabia sign defence pact; Syria secures major Saudi reconstruction investment

Somalia and Saudi Arabia signed a defence cooperation MoU in Riyadh between Ahmed Moallim Fiqi and Prince Khalid bin Salman. The agreement strengthens military coordination, technical assistance, and equipment support while prioritising Red Sea maritime security and regional stability, reflecting expanding Mogadishu–Riyadh diplomatic ties.

Separately, Syria and Saudi Arabia announced major reconstruction investments covering energy, telecommunications, aviation, and real estate. Abdulsalam Haykal confirmed nearly $1bn in telecom projects, while flynas will launch a joint low-cost carrier with the Syrian Civil Aviation Authority. Khalid al-Falih highlighted shared economic goals.

Russia deepens Burkina Faso security and trade ties; Türkiye and Greece pursue diplomatic thaw

Russia and Burkina Faso strengthened bilateral ties during talks in Moscow between Sergey Lavrov and Karamoko Traoré. Agreements established new cooperation frameworks and launched an Intergovernmental Trade and Economic Commission co-chaired by Sergey Tsivilev, due to begin operations in 2026. Both states expanded defence, counter-terrorism, and Sahel security coordination while pledging continued alignment at the United Nations, including shared positions on global stability and the Ukraine conflict.

Meanwhile, Türkiye and Greece signalled improving relations following Ankara talks between Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Discussions focused on maritime disputes in the Aegean and the Cyprus issue, alongside renewed ministerial cooperation within NATO frameworks.

US cuts Bangladesh tariffs; Taiwan deal strengthens semiconductor cooperation

The United States will reduce reciprocal tariffs on Bangladesh to 19%, approved by Donald Trump. The deal includes tariff exemptions for Bangladeshi textiles using US cotton and synthetic fibres, confirmed by Muhammad Yunus. Dhaka will expand market access for US industrial and agricultural goods, remove selected non-tariff barriers, and strengthen environmental, labour, and intellectual property standards. Washington expects future agreements, including aircraft purchases, $3.5bn in agricultural imports, and $15bn in energy trade over 15 years. The pact follows recent US trade agreements with India and Argentina.

Separately, Washington and Taiwan signed a trade deal lowering tariffs on Taiwanese exports to 15%, tied to $250bn in semiconductor investment in the US and aligning rates with Japan and South Korea. Tariff cuts cover autos, chemicals, seafood, machinery, and agriculture, while the US will remove duties on selected Taiwanese food imports. Jamieson Greer, US Trade Representative, said the agreement strengthens technology supply chains and expands US export access.

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