Weekly Brief

Welcome to the tut0ugh Weekly Brief. This past week, Gaza ceasefire deal advances, leadership shifts in France and Peru, rising US-China trade tensions, new defence deals and economic interventions.

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Gaza ceasefire deal advances, signalling end to two years of war

Israel has approved the first phase of a Gaza ceasefire deal, enabling a large-scale hostage-prisoner exchange and expanded humanitarian aid. Under the plan, Hamas will release 20 hostages and 28 bodies in return for around 250 prisoners serving life terms and 1,700 Gaza detainees. Up to 400 aid trucks will enter Gaza daily under UN and multinational monitoring led by the US Central Command, with no US troops deployed.

A follow-up summit in Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh, co-chaired by Presidents al-Sisi and Trump, will seek to consolidate the truce and discuss Gaza’s future governance. The ceasefire follows two years of Israeli operations that Gaza authorities say killed over 67,000 people and caused severe humanitarian devastation.

France reappoints Lecornu as PM amid political crisis; Peru swears in José Jeri after ousting Dina Boluarte

French President Emmanuel Macron has reappointed Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister just four days after his resignation, citing duty to deliver a national budget and address citizens’ concerns. Lecornu, 39, returns amid political paralysis following Macron’s 2024 snap election, which left the government without a parliamentary majority and saw three prime ministers toppled in a year. France faces rising debt and deficit pressures, with Lecornu emphasising fiscal stability as vital to the nation’s future and sovereignty. Opposition figures continue to call for elections and Macron’s resignation.

Meanwhile, Peru’s Congress appointed José Jeri as president after removing Dina Boluarte over crime, corruption, and the “Rolexgate” scandal. Jeri, 38, vowed to tackle criminal gangs while managing a country weary of political unrest.

Pakistan and Taliban clash along border after Kabul airstrikes

Heavy clashes erupted along the Pakistan–Afghanistan border after Taliban fighters attacked Pakistani posts, following reported Pakistani airstrikes near Kabul. Taliban officials claimed to have seized two border posts in Helmand, accusing Islamabad of violating Afghan sovereignty. Pakistan confirmed retaliatory strikes using artillery and tanks but has not officially acknowledged the airstrikes, urging Afghanistan to curb Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) activity. Analysts warn that escalating cross-border attacks risk deepening instability, reflecting long-standing animosity between Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as India and Pakistan earlier this year.

In a timely diplomatic move, India and Afghanistan’s Taliban government announced expanded engagement. India will reopen its embassy in Kabul, increase development aid, expand visa quotas, and support refugee projects, while Afghanistan invited Indian investment, particularly in mining, signalling a stabilising response amid regional tensions.

US-China trade tensions rise with tariff threats and export controls 

US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports next month and restrict exports of critical software, escalating tensions after Beijing tightened rare earth export rules. Trump suggested he might skip an upcoming meeting with President Xi Jinping, though later confirmed he would attend. Markets reacted sharply, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.7%, its steepest fall since April. China has also opened a Qualcomm monopoly investigation and introduced new port fees on US-linked ships, seen as pressure ahead of trade talks in South Korea. Analysts warn both nations are testing each other’s resolve amid deepening trade, technology, and defence competition.

Meanwhile, Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney signalled progress on USMCA trade disputes, aiming to lower tariffs and strengthen North American supply chains.

UN to withdraw 25% of peacekeepers; ICC delivers first Dafur conviction for war crimes 

The United Nations plans to withdraw around a quarter of its global peacekeeping forces due to severe funding shortfalls, affecting nine missions and repatriating 13,000–14,000 troops and police. Key contributors face arrears, with the US owing over $2.8 billion and cancelling $800 million for 2024–2025, while China provides nearly 24% of funding. Affected missions include South Sudan, DR Congo, Lebanon, Kosovo, Cyprus, Central African Republic, Western Sahara, Golan Heights, and Abyei. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is pursuing cost-cutting reforms amid the organisation’s 80th anniversary and a worsening cash crisis.

Meanwhile, the ICC convicted Janjaweed commander Ali Kushayb of 27 counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur between 2003 and 2004, marking the court’s first Darfur conviction and first for gender-based persecution.

Von der Leyen survives two no-confidence votes, outlines EU drone wall security strategy

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen survived two no-confidence votes in the European Parliament, strengthening her position amid EU challenges. Motions from The Left and the far-right Patriots for Europe were decisively rejected, with majorities of 383–133 and 378–179 against, respectively. Centrist and socialist groups maintained firm support, signalling confidence in her leadership as the EU confronts Russia’s war in Ukraine and rising populism.

Von der Leyen outlined a broader security agenda, describing recent drone incursions as part of Russia’s “hybrid war” and calling for a 360-degree approach. The ‘Eastern Sentinel’ defence project will address eastern and southern flanks, countering natural disasters, organised crime, cyberattacks, disinformation, and threats to critical infrastructure, with backing from southern EU states.

New Zealand and Singapore strengthen strategic ties; UK and India finalise major trade and defence deal

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Singapore’s Lawrence Wong signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, strengthening cooperation on trade, defence, digital commerce, climate change, maritime security, and supply chain resilience. A new legally binding trade deal guarantees no export restrictions on essential goods, including medicines, during crises. Luxon called Singapore “one of our closest partners,” while Wong said the pact ensures mutual support in times of need.

Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and India’s Narendra Modi hailed a UK–India trade deal expected to boost bilateral trade by £25.5 billion by 2040. Key measures include tariff reductions, £1.3 billion in Indian investment in the UK, a joint AI centre, innovation hubs, and a £350 million defence deal supplying lightweight missiles, alongside continued UK support for Ukraine.

US launches $20 billion support for Argentina to stabilise peso; Trump approves Alaska road for critical minerals access

The United States has unveiled a $20 billion support package for Argentina to stabilise the peso after sharp declines. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed a currency swap framework and direct peso purchases to restore market confidence ahead of Argentina’s 26 October midterms. President Javier Milei thanked the US, describing it as “the closest of allies,” while bond prices and the peso rose following the announcement. Trump and Milei are set to meet on 14 October at the White House.

Meanwhile, Trump authorised a 211-mile road through Alaska’s wilderness to access copper, cobalt, gold, and other critical minerals, previously blocked over environmental and Indigenous concerns. The project, involving a 10% US stake in Trilogy Metals, is intended to secure resources for strategic technologies, despite opposition from tribes and environmentalists over ecological risks.

Gold hits record $4000 amid global uncertainty; Renewables surpass coal as world’s primary source of electricity 

Gold has surged past $4,000 (£2,985) an ounce for the first time, rising 33% since April amid global political and economic uncertainty — its strongest rally since the 1970s. Spot gold hit $4,036 in Asia, supported by central bank buying, record $64bn inflows into ETFs, and a weaker US dollar. The ongoing US government shutdown has added momentum, though analysts warn prices may fall if the Federal Reserve raises rates or tensions ease.

Meanwhile, renewables overtook coal as the world’s main electricity source in early 2025, according to Ember. Growth was driven by China and India’s rapid solar and wind expansion, while weaker output in the US and EU slowed their transitions. Solar accounted for 83% of global electricity demand growth.

Australia, PNG seal mutual defence pact; Pakistan, Malaysia sign new cooperation accords

Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) have signed the Pukpuk Treaty, creating mutual defence obligations and closer military cooperation. The deal grants Australia access to PNG facilities and allows up to 10,000 PNG citizens to serve in the Australian Defence Force with possible citizenship pathways. It also includes commitments to joint action if attacked, cybersecurity collaboration, and annual exercises to enhance readiness and regional stability.

Meanwhile, Pakistan and Malaysia signed six accords to strengthen cooperation in trade, education, and governance during Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to Kuala Lumpur. A $200 million Halal meat export deal was finalised, alongside MoUs on SMEs, higher education, and anti-corruption. Both leaders reaffirmed support for peace in the Middle East and South Asia.

Rising Nile floods deepen Egypt-Ethiopia tensions over Grand Renaissance Dam

Rising Nile waters have flooded homes and farmland across northern Egypt, forcing evacuations and renewing tensions with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). In Menoufia Governorate, residents navigated submerged streets by boat as water levels rose sharply. Egypt’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation accused Ethiopia of “reckless unilateral” dam operations, claiming unannounced water discharges worsened the flooding. 

Addis Ababa denied the allegations, saying the GERD helped regulate flows and reduce damage. In Sudan, floods displaced about 1,200 families amid ongoing conflict. Egyptian authorities have deployed health teams and warned that low-lying Nile Delta communities remain at risk. The GERD, inaugurated in September 2025, holds 74 billion cubic metres.

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