Weekly Brief

May 11, 2025

Welcome to the tut0ugh Weekly Brief. This past week, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire following escalating tensions, while the US and Yemen’s Houthis also reached a truce. In Europe, leaders urged Russia to consider a 30-day Ukraine ceasefire. Cardinal Robert Prevost was elected Pope, taking the name Leo XIV, and Friedrich Merz was confirmed as Germany’s new chancellor. In Romania, nationalist candidate George Simion led the first round of a rerun election. Meanwhile, the UK secured trade deals with both India and the US, and Sudan severed diplomatic ties with the UAE over alleged RSF support.

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India, Pakistan agree to ceasefire amid escalating cross-border tensions

India and Pakistan agreed to a US-brokered ceasefire on Saturday (May. 10) following a dramatic escalation in cross-border attacks. The clashes began after India launched missile strikes on nine sites in Pakistan, killing 31 people, in response to a deadly militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. The violence intensified with drone assaults, retaliatory airstrikes, and accusations of missile attacks from both sides.

The ceasefire, announced by President Trump and negotiated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice-President JD Vance, aimed to halt hostilities on land, sea, and air. However, its stability was quickly questioned as fresh shelling and explosions resumed in Kashmir hours later, with both sides accusing each other of violating the truce.

Cardinal Robert Prevost elected new Pope, takes name Leo XIV

Cardinal Robert Prevost has been elected as Pope Leo XIV, becoming the first US-born pontiff. A former missionary with dual US-Peruvian citizenship, he previously led the Vatican office overseeing bishop appointments. In his inaugural address at St. Peter’s Basilica, he honoured the late Pope Francis and pledged to continue his reformist legacy.

At his first meeting with cardinals, Leo highlighted artificial intelligence as a key issue threatening human dignity, justice, and labour. He linked his chosen name to Pope Leo XIII, known for defending workers’ rights during the industrial revolution.

Merz confirmed as German chancellor after surprise setback

Friedrich Merz has been confirmed as Germany’s new chancellor after winning a second-round parliamentary vote, following an unexpected initial failure. The 69-year-old Christian Democrat, who won February’s election, has formed a coalition with the Social Democrats. His narrow 325-vote majority in the Bundestag exposed internal divisions and signals potential challenges ahead.

Merz succeeds Olaf Scholz after months of political gridlock following the collapse of the previous coalition in November. A former BlackRock adviser, Merz faces a fragile economy heavily reliant on exports and vulnerable to potential US tariffs.

Nationalist Simion wins first round of Romanian election rerun

Nationalist George Simion won 40.96% in Romania’s presidential first round, advancing to the May 18 runoff against liberal Bucharest mayor Nicușor Dan. Simion, backed strongly by the diaspora, is now the favourite after the annulment of last year’s fraud-tainted vote.

The ruling coalition’s candidate Crin Antonescu placed third, prompting Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu to resign. Simion’s rise, fuelled by anti-establishment sentiment, worries Western capitals as Romania plays a key role in supporting Ukraine’s war effort, hosting NATO airbases and US missile defences.

Ceasefire deal reached between US and Yemen’s Houthis

The US will halt airstrikes on Yemen’s Houthis after the group agreed to stop targeting Red Sea shipping. The deal, brokered by Oman, aims to ensure freedom of navigation. President Trump announced the pause during a meeting with Canada’s prime minister, claiming the Houthis had “capitulated”—a claim the group rejected, saying it was the US that backed down.

The ceasefire does not include Houthi attacks on Israel, which continued this week. Since November 2023, the Houthis have targeted vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, citing support for Palestinians. US strikes intensified in March, hitting over 800 targets and reportedly killing hundreds of fighters and leaders, though civilian deaths were also reported.

European leaders pressure Russia over 30-day Ukraine ceasefire

European leaders met in Kyiv on Saturday (May.10) urging Russia to accept an unconditional 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine starting May 12. Backed by President Trump, the UK, France, Germany, and Poland warned of severe sanctions if Moscow refuses. President Zelensky said any preconditions would derail peace.

Hours later, President Putin invited Ukraine to "direct talks" on May 15, proposing Istanbul as the venue and calling for “serious negotiations.” However, he avoided directly addressing the ceasefire request. Russia has demanded an end to Western military aid but is reportedly considering the proposal.

UK secures trade deals with India, US

The UK has reached two landmark trade agreements with India and the United States. The free trade deal with India, concluded after three years of negotiations, is projected to boost bilateral trade by £25.5 billion by 2040. It includes reduced tariffs on key goods such as whisky, lamb, salmon, chocolate, and advanced manufacturing components.

The separate UK–US agreement, announced via a call between Prime Minister Starmer and President Trump, reduces tariffs on UK car exports and lifts duties on steel, aluminium, and beef. Starmer called both deals signs of a “new era for trade,” though critics say the US agreement falls short of a full free trade deal.

Sudan cuts diplomatic ties with UAE over alleged RSF support

Sudan has severed diplomatic ties with the United Arab Emirates, accusing it of backing the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the ongoing civil war. The decision follows drone strikes in Port Sudan, previously a safe zone, targeting key infrastructure. The UAE denies supporting the RSF and rejected the defence council’s authority to cut ties.

The conflict, which began in April 2023, has killed thousands and displaced millions, with the UN describing it as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Shortly before Sudan severed ties with the UAE, the International Court of Justice dismissed Khartoum’s genocide case against the Gulf state, citing jurisdictional limits under the Genocide Convention.