Weekly Brief

Welcome to the tut0ugh Weekly Brief. This past week, energy diplomacy, mass protests, security tensions, trade disputes, and regional crises influenced politics across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and East Asia.”

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Iran faces most serious unrest since 2022 as crackdown intensifies

Iran’s armed forces have pledged to protect “strategic infrastructure” as nationwide protests escalate, marking the most serious internal unrest since 2022.

Authorities report deadly clashes between demonstrators and security forces, at least 116 while more that 2,600 people have been detained, according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency.

Prosecutor-General Mohammad Movahedi-Azad ordered courts to act “quickly and without leniency”. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accused protesters of acting on behalf of the United States, while the military blamed Israel and “hostile terrorist groups”.

The unrest, triggered by rising prices, has spread nationwide, prompting mass arrests, an internet blackout and pro-government counter-rallies.

Trump pushes Venezuela oil revival as US seizes “dark fleet” tankers

US President Donald Trump urged major energy firms to commit up to $100bn to rebuild Venezuela’s oil sector, citing its 303 billion barrels of proven reserves and calling the country commercially viable after political change. He said interim authorities would transfer 30–50 million barrels of oil to the United States under US oversight.

Executives remained cautious. ExxonMobil Chief Executive Darren Woods called Venezuela “un-investable” without legal guarantees, while Chevron spokesman Bill Turenne said the company remains focused on safety and compliance.

Trump also warned of economic action against Iran if violence against protesters escalates and reiterated that the US “needs Greenland” for national security. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and European leaders rejected the idea, stressing Greenland’s future must be decided by Greenlanders and Denmark.

Separately, US forces seized three Venezuela-linked tankers — Olina, Bella-1 (Marinera) and M/T Sophia— targeting what Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem called a sanctions-busting “dark fleet”. US Southern Command and allied agencies said the seizures aim to disrupt illicit oil exports funding sanctioned states.

Europe debates Ukraine security force as Russia issues warnings

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a declaration in Paris outlining a possible post-ceasefire security presence in Ukraine, focused on airspace protection, maritime security and rebuilding Ukraine’s armed forces.

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk said they would not send troops, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Germany would limit any role to neighbouring states.

Russia warned any Western forces in Ukraine would be treated as “legitimate combat targets” and later in the week said it fired an Oreshnik hypersonic missile at western Ukraine, which Kyiv said hit critical infrastructure near Stryi, amid rising regional tensions.

EU backs Mercosur trade deal despite farmer and state opposition

EU member states have provisionally endorsed the EU–Mercosur trade agreement, the bloc’s largest-ever deal, despite opposition from several governments and farmers’ groups.

The pact would remove most tariffs across a 700-million-person market spanning Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. Ireland, France, Poland, Hungary and Austria voted against the deal, while Belgium abstained. The decision by EU ambassadors remains indicative and still requires approval by ministers and the European Parliament.

Aleppo clashes expose fragile Syria–SDF integration process

At least 22 people were killed in clashes in Aleppo between Syrian government forces and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), underscoring unresolved tensions more than a year after the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad.

A truce announced by the Syrian Ministry of Defence is fragile, as both sides remain deadlocked over a March 2025 integration agreement under President Ahmed al-Sharaa to fold the SDF into state institutions.

The United States, which backs both parties, has urged restraint. US envoy Tom Barrack called for de-escalation, while analysts warn the stalled process risks further displacement and renewed fighting, amid regional rivalries involving Türkiye and Israel.

On Saturday (Jan. 10) US Central Command said it struck Islamic State (IS) targets in Syria under Operation Hawkeye Strike, authorised by President Donald Trump after a deadly December attack. Earlier in the week the UK Ministry of Defence confirmed RAF Typhoon FGR4 jets joined French forces in strikes near Palmyra to prevent an IS resurgence.

Yemen power struggle deepens despite Saudi-led mediation

President Rashad al-Alimi, head of Yemen’s Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), says government forces have recaptured Hadramout and al-Mahra from the Southern Transitional Council (STC), restoring state control over much of southern and eastern Yemen.

Al-Alimi said former STC members have been invited to Riyadh for talks and that all armed forces will now operate under the Saudi-led coalition. Thousands meanwhile rallied in Aden demanding southern independence, waving the former South Yemen flag.

The STC briefly announced its dissolution under pressure, then reversed the decision, calling it “coerced”. Al-Alimi also warned the Houthi movement to negotiate or face possible military action, underscoring renewed political and security tensions.

South Africa hosts BRICS Plus “Will for Peace 2026” naval exercises

South Africa has launched the week-long “Will for Peace 2026” naval exercises off Cape Town with China, Russia and Iran, part of an expanded BRICS Plus maritime security initiative. Pretoria says the drills aim to strengthen cooperation, safeguard maritime trade routes and enhance interoperability among participating navies.  

Captain Nndwakhulu Thomas Thamaha, South Africa’s joint task force commander, described the manoeuvres as cooperative, not confrontational. Lieutenant Colonel Mpho Mathebula, acting joint operations spokesperson, confirmed all BRICS Plus members were invited, with Brazil, Egypt and Ethiopiaamong observers.  

Deputy Defence Minister Bantu Holomisa said the exercises were planned well before current geopolitical tensions and urged against linking them to wider disputes.  

Critics, including the Democratic Alliance, argue the inclusion of Russia and Iran could strain ties with the United States.  

Inter-Korean tensions rise over drone claims and missile tests

North Korea has accused South Korea of flying surveillance drones into its airspace, calling it a violation of sovereignty. The Korean People’s Army General Staff said it downed a drone using electronic warfare systems, while South Korea’s Ministry of National Defence denied the claim.

The dispute complicates efforts by President Lee Jae Myung to restart dialogue with Pyongyang. On Wednesday (Jan. 7), Lee said he asked Chinese President Xi Jinping to support mediation on the peninsula and limit nuclear escalation, saying diplomatic channels are “completely blocked”.

Shortly before South Korean President Lee Jae-myung was due to travel to Beijing for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, North Korea launched multiple ballistic missiles, which Japan’s Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi called “absolutely intolerable”. Seoul said the tests violate UN Security Council resolutions and threaten regional stability.

China deepens Africa ties with Wang Yi diplomatic tour

Foreign Minister Wang Yi has begun China’s 2026 New Year diplomatic tour of Africa, visiting Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania and Lesotho to deepen trade, infrastructure and political ties.

In Ethiopia, Beijing is targeting market expansion as the International Monetary Fund forecasts 7.2% growth in 2026. The stop in Somalia is the first by a Chinese foreign minister since the 1980s, reinforcing support for Mogadishu and China’s interests along the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea trade corridor.

In Tanzania, Chinese firms are upgrading the TAZARA Railway to secure copper supply chains from Zambia. Lesotho highlights Beijing’s push for tariff-free access for least-developed countries amid tightening Western trade policies.

Berlin blackout exposes risks to Germany’s critical infrastructure

About 100,000 residents in south-west Berlin were left without electricity and heating for several days after an arson attack damaged bundled power cables over the Teltow Canal, authorities say.

Berlin Mayor Kai Wegner, of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union, said the attack “knowingly put human lives at risk”, particularly affecting hospitals, elderly residents and families.

A group calling itself Vulkangruppe, classified by security services as a left-wing extremist organisation, has claimed responsibility, framing the sabotage as opposition to fossil fuels and energy-intensive artificial intelligence data centres.

Security officials say the incident highlights rising risks to Germany’s critical infrastructure from domestic extremism and potential foreign sabotage, amid heightened geopolitical tensions and growing concern over hybrid threats.

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