Weekly Brief

Welcome to the tut0ugh Weekly Brief. This past week, trade disputes escalate, Europe ramps up defence, China sets economic goals, and global tensions rise from the Middle East to South Asia. Plus, a major Panama Canal deal, Austria’s new government, and Iran’s Zarif resigns.

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Brewing trade war escalates as U.S. delays tariffs, China targets Canada

U.S. President Donald Trump suspended 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican goods on Thursday (Mar. 6), granting a temporary exemption until April 2. The tariffs, which took effect on Tuesday (Mar. 4), also included a 20% levy on Chinese imports. In response to the suspension, Canada postponed a planned second wave of retaliatory tariffs on C$125 billion of U.S. products.

Meanwhile, China imposed $2.6 billion in tariffs on Canadian agricultural and food products, targeting rapeseed oil, seafood, and pork. Analysts say China’s move serves as a warning, as the Trump administration has signalled it may ease 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico if they match the extra 20% duty imposed on Chinese goods over fentanyl flows.

China’s Two Sessions kicks off, unveiling key economic priorities

China's annual Two Sessions meetings began on Wednesday (Mar. 5), setting the 2025 policy agenda. Premier Li Qiang announced a 5% GDP growth target, acknowledging challenges like weak domestic demand and trade tensions with the U.S. To boost growth, China raised its budget deficit to 4% of GDP, enabling more government spending. Measures to stimulate consumption include a 300-billion-yuan ($41 billion) treasury bond, incentives for digital and green spending, and better duty-free shopping policies.

China also plans to expand export credit insurance, enhance logistics, and promote cross-border e-commerce. The government aims to create 12 million urban jobs, support industries, and stabilize markets, with easing real estate policies and more autonomy for cities.

U.S. suspends aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine amid escalating tensions

On Monday (Mar. 3), the U.S. suspended military aid to Ukraine, pressuring President Zelenskyy for peace deal concessions. Two days later, the U.S. escalated its stance by halting intelligence sharing. in a sign of easing tensions, during a Congressional address Trump revealed he had received an "important letter" from Zelenskyy, in which the Ukrainian leader expressed gratitude for U.S. support, pledged cooperation for lasting peace, and committed to a minerals deal.

Following the suspension and intelligence freeze, Russia launched missile strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, further straining Kyiv’s defences. Despite mounting pressure, Ukraine and the U.S. plan to meet in Saudi Arabia next week to discuss a potential peace framework.

Europe ramps up defence spending and military preparedness amid growing security concerns

European leaders demonstrated strong support for Ukraine during a summit in London on Sunday (Mar. 2), with the UK securing a $2 billion air defence deal and forming a "coalition of the willing" to draft a peace plan for Trump. Days later, the EU unveiled its ReArm Europe initiative, which could unlock up to €800 billion for defence spending. As part of a broader shift, Germany is planning defence reforms under its incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz, while French President Macron is considering France’s nuclear role in European security.

At a follow-up summit on Thursday (Mar. 6), EU leaders approved billions in defence spending and $33 billion in aid for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Poland, wary of shifting U.S. policies, is expanding its military to 500,000 troops and exploring nuclear options. With Europe reassessing its security posture, the continent is taking greater responsibility for its own defence, marking a significant shift in strategy.

Israel blocks aid to Gaza; Arab leaders back $53bn post-war reconstruction plan

Israel blocked all humanitarian aid to Gaza on Sunday (Mar. 2) to pressure Hamas into accepting a U.S.-mediated extension of the first phase of the ceasefire plan. The first phase expired on Saturday (Mar. 1), with Israel accusing Hamas of rejecting the extension, while Hamas demands a transition to phase two. The initial ceasefire plan includes three phases: hostage exchanges, a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal, and Gaza’s reconstruction. Israel agreed to a six-week extension but warned of resuming military action if talks fail.

Meanwhile, Arab leaders backed Egypt's $53 billion reconstruction plan, advocating for a Palestinian-led administration. The U.S. and Israel oppose it, preferring U.S. oversight. On Saturday (Mar. 8), the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Italy, and Britain endorsed the plan, pledging to work with Arab states on rebuilding efforts.

BlackRock-led group to buy Panama Canal ports from Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison

A BlackRock-backed investor group has agreed to buy a majority stake in Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison’s Panama Ports Company for $22.8 billion, gaining control over key ports at both ends of the Panama Canal. The acquisition, which includes ports in other countries, is viewed as a diplomatic win for President Donald Trump amid U.S. efforts to limit Chinese influence on critical infrastructure. The deal grants the consortium a 90% stake in the Balboa and Cristobal ports, crucial for U.S. trade. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has briefed the White House and Congress on the transaction.

Syria sees deadliest unrest since transitional government took power

Over 225 people have been killed in Syria’s deadliest unrest since the transitional government took power, as clashes erupted between security forces and supporters of former President Bashar al-Assad. Fighting broke out Thursday (Mar. 6) in the coastal regions of Latakia and Tartous—Assad strongholds—after government forces attempted to detain a suspect near Jableh but were ambushed by loyalists, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The violence follows months of sectarian tensions in the area.

Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa urged armed groups tied to the former government to disarm and called on pro-government forces to avoid targeting civilians or mistreating detainees.

Iran’s Zarif resigns amid hardline pressure

Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s former foreign minister and strategic foreign policy adviser, resigned on Monday (Mar. 3) under pressure from hardline factions. Zarif described this as "the most bitter era" of his 40-year service, revealing that judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei advised his resignation to ease government pressure.

Zarif faced criticism from hardliners over a 2022 law banning officials with dual-national family members from holding office, as his children are U.S. citizens. His resignation follows the impeachment of economy minister Abdolnaser Hemmati, who was accused of mismanaging the economy. Amid economic struggles, with inflation at 35% and a weakening rial, authorities fear social unrest as Nowruz celebrations approach.

Tensions rise after Afghan, Pakistani forces trade fire at vital border crossing

Pakistani and Afghan forces exchanged fire at the Torkham border crossing on Monday (Mar. 3), resulting in one Afghan security officer dead and another wounded. The clash follows an 11-day border closure after Pakistan objected to a new Afghan checkpoint, stranding thousands of trucks and travelers. Afghan traders estimated daily losses of $500,000, while cross-border movement for medical care and work was disrupted.

Both sides blamed each other for the violence, with Pakistan accusing Afghan forces of unprovoked fire, and Afghanistan claiming Pakistan initiated the attack. The incident highlights ongoing tensions between the two nations, worsened by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan’s rise in attacks since the Taliban's return to power.

Austria swears in new government

Austria’s President Alexander van der Bellen swore in a new three-party government on Monday (Mar. 3), ending five months of political deadlock after last September’s election. Conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) leader Christian Stocker will serve as prime minister, leading a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the liberal Neos party.

This alliance prevents the so-called far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), which won the most votes, from taking power. After failed talks between the ÖVP, SPÖ, and Neos in January, Stocker revived the coalition, securing a budget compromise that balances fiscal responsibility with social and economic investment.