Weekly Brief

Welcome to the tut0ugh Weekly Brief. This past week, nuclear risks, trade initiatives, regional partnerships, and elections highlighted rising geopolitical tensions and the evolving dynamics shaping global alliances and strategies.

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US proposes critical minerals trade bloc; aims to reduce China dependence

The United States has unveiled plans for a preferential trade bloc to secure critical mineral supply chains, with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio presenting the initiative in Washington.

Aiming to reduce dependence on concentrated processing, the plan targets minerals essential for semiconductors, electric vehicles, and defence technologies, using adjustable tariffs to stabilise markets and attract investment.

President Donald Trump’s Project Vault supports the strategy with a $12 billion stockpile. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed supply agreements with Mexico and a trilateral framework with the EU and Japan.

The 55-country discussions focus on subsidies, market standards, and guaranteed mineral purchases. China dominates global processing, controlling up to 90% of rare earth refining, underlining geopolitical risks.

Global nuclear risk rises as New START expires

The New START treaty between Russia and the United States has expired, ending limits on deployed strategic nuclear arsenals. Signed in 2010 by President Barack Obama and President Dmitry Medvedev, the treaty capped each side at 1,550 warheads on 700 delivery systems.

President Vladimir Putin proposed a one-year extension, but US President Donald Trump replied by calling the treaty “badly negotiated” and advocating a new multilateral agreement including China.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned nuclear risks are at their highest in decades. Analysts highlight reduced transparency, emerging technologies, and China’s growing arsenal—estimated at 600 warheads—as factors raising escalation risks. US Undersecretary Thomas DiNanno accused Beijing of nuclear testing in 2020, which China denies.

US Sets June deadline for Ukraine-Russia peace talks

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that the United States has set a June deadline for Ukraine and Russia to reach a peace agreement. Trump administration officials have proposed the next round of trilateral talks in Miami next week.

Despite ongoing negotiations, both sides remain at odds. The Kremlin demands Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donbas region, which Kyiv rejects and is barred by its constitution from ceding. A prisoner-of-war exchange on February 5 saw 157 captives released by each side, with more swaps planned.

Ukraine reported fresh Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, while US special envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed that sustained diplomacy is producing tangible results. Washington and Moscow also agreed to restore high-level military dialogue to reduce escalation risks.

Iranian-US talks resume amid tensions

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed hope that negotiations with the United States would resume soon, following mediated talks in Oman. He said Iran’s missile programme is “never negotiable” and warned that Tehran could target US bases in the region if attacked.

US President Donald Trump pledged further talks next week but simultaneously signed an executive order imposing tariffs on countries trading with Iran and announced new sanctions on shipping entities to curb oil exports. Trump’s negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, visited the USS Abraham Lincoln to emphasise “peace through strength.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to meet Trump to discuss missile limitations and Iran’s regional influence. Analysts remain cautious on the prospects of a breakthrough.

Rafah crossing partially reopens; Türkiye and Egypt deepen strategic cooperation

Palestinians have begun returning to Gaza following the partial reopening of the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt, a step linked to the Israel–Hamas ceasefire. Returnees reported delays and alleged mistreatment at Israeli checkpoints. The Israeli military denied misconduct, while an unnamed European Union official said no such incidents were recorded. According to Raed al-Nims, spokesperson for the Palestine Red Crescent Society, some medical evacuees were turned back despite ongoing demand, with approximately 20,000 Gazans seeking treatment abroad. Israeli strikes have continued, with Israel citing militant targets.

Separately, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Cairo, meeting Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Both leaders signed agreements expanding defence cooperation, maritime security coordination, and trade, aiming to increase bilateral trade to $15 billion, signalling strengthened regional diplomacy.

Russia and Myanmar sign military cooperation pact; China–Uruguay strategic cooperation expands

Russia and Myanmar have formalised a five-year military cooperation pact following a visit by Sergei Shoigu, Russian Security Council Secretary, reinforcing Moscow’s role as a key defence partner to Myanmar’s military leadership. The agreement reportedly expands defence collaboration and international diplomatic support amid ongoing civil conflict and sanctions.

Sergei Shoigu reiterated Russia’s backing for Myanmar’s territorial sovereignty. The pact follows a controversial election excluding jailed opposition figure Aung San Suu Kyi, raising international concern about legitimacy and stability.

Separately, President Xi Jinping of China and President Yamandú Orsi of Uruguay signed over ten cooperation agreements in Beijing, covering trade, technology, agriculture and clean energy. The visit reflects Uruguay’s strategy to deepen global partnerships while balancing ties between China and Western markets.

UAE–Germany ties expand; Bahrain–France defence pact signed

UAE President His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan met German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Abu Dhabi to expand UAE–Germany strategic cooperation in energy security, advanced technology, and innovation. Agreements included an ADNOC–RWE gas and LNG partnership signed by Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber and Dr Markus Krebber, renewable energy collaboration between Masdar and RWE, and a chemicals sector partnership involving Dr Markus Steilemann. Sports cooperation between the UAE Pro League and Bundesliga International was also announced.

Separately, King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa and French President Emmanuel Macron finalised a Bahrain–France defence agreement covering intelligence sharing, military modernisation, and joint exercises. The pact supports maritime security across the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Aden, and Strait of Hormuz, aligning with Europe’s EMASoH mission.

Ethiopia’s PM Abiy Ahmed accuses Eritrean forces of Tigray war atrocities as tensions resurface 

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has formally acknowledged Eritrean military involvement in Ethiopia’s 2020–2022 Tigray war, accusing Eritrean forces of mass killings during joint operations against Tigray regional forces. Speaking in parliament, Ahmed alleged atrocities in Shire, Axum, and Adwa. The conflict is estimated to have caused over 400,000 deaths before a 2022 peace agreement ended large-scale hostilities.

Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel rejected the claims as false. Tensions have escalated amid accusations of proxy support for rebel groups and disputes over Red Sea access, which Ethiopia lost following Eritrea’s 1993 independence. Analysts warn renewed fighting could destabilise the Horn of Africa, with recent clashes already disrupting flights and heightening regional security concerns.

Costa Rican presidential election: Laura Fernandez wins majority with strong legislative backing

President-elect Laura Fernandez, candidate of the ruling party allied with President Rodrigo Chaves, won Costa Rica’s presidential election with 48% of votes, surpassing the 40% threshold and avoiding a run-off. Her Pueblo Soberano Party (PPSO) secured 31 of 57 legislative seats, granting a governing majority but not constitutional reform powers. Fernandez has pledged to include Chaves in government, preserving his immunity, raising scrutiny over political influence and governance independence.

Fernandez campaigned on hardline crime policies, drawing support from Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, though rising crime under current policies suggests implementation challenges. She is expected to maintain diplomatic relations with China despite potential pressure from the United States. Comparisons with Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum highlight differing administrative approaches, while analysts expect Costa Rica’s democratic institutions to remain stable.

India and Malaysia deepen strategic partnership; 11 agreements signed

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim reaffirmed commitments to strengthen trade and expand cooperation in semiconductors, defence, and other sectors during Modi’s two-day visit to Malaysia, his first since ties were elevated to a comprehensive strategic partnership in August 2024.

At a press conference in Putrajaya, Anwar highlighted collaboration across trade, investment, food security, healthcare, tourism, and defence, emphasising rapid execution with both governments’ support.

The leaders witnessed the signing of 11 agreements, covering semiconductors, disaster management, and peacekeeping. Plans include promoting local-currency settlement for cross-border trade, targeting growth beyond last year’s $18.6 billion, and India opening a consulate in Sabah.

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